WaterWired

Will China Run Out of Water?

This was the title of Dr. Chunmiao Zheng's lecture yesterday at OSU. Dr. Zheng, of the University of Alabama and the founding director of the Center for Water Research at Peking University in Beijing, is the current Birdsall-Dreiss Lecturer of the Geological Society of America. He is also one of the world's foremost experts on subsurface contaminant transport modeling and has co-authored a book on the subject, Applied Contaminant Transport Modeling (2/e).

I also heard his talk at the NGWA Ground Water Summit last week.

His topic is quite daunting, especially for a 45-minute talk. But he did a very good job, which I will try to summarize. His presentation (as a pdf) and video should be posted here in the next few days.

My take: China will try to engineer its way out of shortages, which are mostly in the north and northwest. But at what price? Read on.

Most of the figures were cited in billion cubic meters (BCM) - one BCM is about 810,000 AF, or one 1 cubic kilometer.

He noted that China is like two countries: dry in the north (Yellow River is here), where some areas have annual precipitation amounts under 200 mm (8 inches), and wet in the south (Yangtze River), where annual precipitation can exceed 1600 mm (64 inches). Sounds like the flip of California. 

The north has more of the land, about 62%. The population is approximately evenly divided. Upshot: the south has 4x more water per capita than the north.

Right now, Dr. Zheng said that about 400 of the 660 cities have water shortages; 110 of those are classified as severe. About 90% of China's aquifers are contaminated to some degree.

In 2030, China is expected to use 700-800 BCM annually, out of a total 800-900 BCM available. Doesn't sound real good, does it?

Dr. Zheng then spoke about the North China Plain, south of Beijing where the Yellow River flows to the sea. In that relatively small area - 140,000 square kilometers (54,000 square miles - slightly bigger than Arkansas), which is the economic, political, and cultural center of China - over 100M people live.

In this area, drastic declines in the groundwater levels have occurred, and the annual water budget deficit is abvout 4 BCM.

So what about the future? Some solutions being considered:

• Water savings
• Changes in agricultural practice (currently uses 60-70% of all water)
• Rainwater harvesting (30 M people currently)
• Desalination
• Price reforms
• "Ocean reservoirs"
• South to North water transfer

"Ocean reservoirs" are reservoirs constructed in the oceans where rivers flow to the sea, that separate salt and fresh water with membranes. The fresh water is then pumped back to the land. No, this is not a joke.

The big thing is the last item, a massive transfer from the wet south to the dry north. It is already underway, and consists of three routes: eastern, central, and western. The total amount of water to be transferred annually is about 45 BCM (37 MAF) in 2050. The cost will be about $US 60B (this figure seems low).

Keep in mind that the amount of water delivered in 2050 is only about 5-6% of China's anticipated water use in 2030. That is barely a dent. All that fuss for 5-6%?

I posted about this transfer in December 2007, where you can find links.

The western route is the most complicated, as it will involve tunneling in an area of complex geology, active tectonics, and great elevations. Three streams in this area will have 65-70% of their total flow diverted.

This massive project will have unimaginable environmental consequences. Dr. Zheng said that most of China's endangered species lie in the western route region.

So will China run out of water? Dr. Zheng said that it won't as a country, but that areas in the north and northwest are in trouble and already use every available drop.

I'll go way out on a limb and say that engineering will be a growth profession in China for the next 40 years.

Ecologists and environmental scientists? That might be another story.

It was appropriate that Chunmiao concluded his lecture with this quote:

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." -- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

I'll add this one:

"Southern water is plentiful; northern water scarce. Borrowing some water would be good." -- Mao Zedong, 1952.  

NYT Op-Ed 'End the University as We Know It' Discusses Water Programs

Mark C. Taylor, Professor and Chair of the Department of Religion at Columbia University, wrote this provocatively-titled Op-Ed in the New York Times. As you might guess, there were many comments - over 400 the last time I looked.

He has a number of recommendations bound to create waves.  Here's one:

Abolish permanent departments, even for undergraduate education, and create problem-focused programs. These constantly evolving programs would have sunset clauses, and every seven years each one should be evaluated and either abolished, continued or significantly changed. It is possible to imagine a broad range of topics around which such zones of inquiry could be organized: Mind, Body, Law, Information, Networks, Language, Space, Time, Media, Money, Life and Water.

To illustrate how this might work, Taylor invokes water:

Consider, for example, a Water program. In the coming decades, water will become a more pressing problem than oil, and the quantity, quality and distribution of water will pose significant scientific, technological and ecological difficulties as well as serious political and economic challenges. These vexing practical problems cannot be adequately addressed without also considering important philosophical, religious and ethical issues. After all, beliefs shape practices as much as practices shape beliefs.

A Water program would bring together people in the humanities, arts, social and natural sciences with representatives from professional schools like medicine, law, business, engineering, social work, theology and architecture. Through the intersection of multiple perspectives and approaches, new theoretical insights will develop and unexpected practical solutions will emerge.

This approach is being taken at a number of universities, including my two most recent: the Water Resources Graduate Program (WRGP) at Oregon State University and the Water Resources Program (WRP) at the University of New Mexico. The University of Idaho has its Water of the West (WoW) program.

At each of the aforementioned schools departments have not been abolished, and the multidisciplinary MD) and interdisciplinary (ID) programs have been crafted using faculty from a variety of departments, schools, and colleges. I don't see departments being abolished in the very near future; too much turf involved.

Taylor's approach is akin to the 'trade school theory' of universities. This is an age-old debate: should universities, especially ones with graduate programs, function like trade schools? Or should they seek knowledge for knowledge's sake? Or should they do both, depending upon the discipline involved?

But you cannot argue that the USA universities are the envy of the world. On one list 13 of the top 20 are USA schools. So something is right, but we can make some improvements. One of the dichotomies I see in USA higher education is that while universities are on the cutting edge of knowledge that is fomenting societal change, they are highly resistant to internal change. For some, it's the old 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' argument.

My biggest complaint with ID and MD programs is that they are not adequately funded and there are seemingly interminable debates over which department/school/college gets credit for which things. These fatcts are true whether we are talking about degree programs or research endeavors. Many universities are great at 'talking the talk' when it comes to ID and MD programs, but 'walking the walk' is an entirely different matter.   

But as usual, I am digressing.

Do read Professor Taylor's article. It goes beyond water.

Thanks to Todd Jarvis for sending this my way.

“Do not do what I do; rather, take whatever I have to offer and do with it what I could never imagine doing and then come back and tell me about it.” -- Mark Taylor's advice to his students

Steve Gough's 'Riparian Rap' Blog

The other day I posted about Steve Gough and his moveable bed models. I also wanted to mention Steve's blog, Riparian Rap. 

He even had a nice write-up on my visit to LRRD. I especially enjoyed this:

I've followed his blog WaterWired for a while. It's very fresh, and today's post on his arrival in the Midwest ended with this quote from Cheap Trick's Robin Zander: "We're from Rockford, Illinois, but we've always thought international." I'd enjoyed the blog, and by its hip tone assumed a young author, and so was a little surprised to see a man who is, let's say, well past his thirties, walk into our lab this afternoon!

Awesome, Steve - thanks. Actually, I'm double the number you mention. Believe me, I had not seen this until after I wrote about the models!

And here's Robin Zander - he's put on a few years, too.

Sorry I couldn't think of a band from southern Illinois...

"Cheap Trick are a total fun band...you know all the songs, you're going to sing along." -- Phil Collen

Peter Gleick Joins the Blogosphere With 'City Brights: Water By Numbers'

Dr. Peter Gleick, President and co-founder of the Pacific Institute, has started a blog, City Brights: Water By Numbers.

Here is an excerpt from his inaugural post:

Welcome to the first post to my City Brights blog. I look forward to sharing with you some of my thoughts about the water challenges facing California, the West, and our world. I hope this blog will be somewhat different than others. What I hope to do is to explore the threats and challenges to our freshwater resources and to discuss available, viable solutions to those threats, drawing from not only my experiences and viewpoint, but also by way of numbers. I will include in each post an important, unusual, or newsworthy "water number" that I hope will highlight some piece of the water issue. And now to begin the discussion...

This'll be real good; Peter's wisdom and insight will be a wonderful addition. He is one of the most astute observers of the global water and energy scenes. I'm still waiting for him to be appointed White House Water Advisor.

Welcome, Peter!

"The man who has confidence in himself gains the confidence of others." - Hasidic proverb

The Oregonian's Water Series, Part 2: Oregon's Water Demand Opens Door to Special Interests

Les Zaitz's two-part series on Oregon water issues concludes in today's print edition of The Oregonian.

Here is Part 1.

Zaitz's story is still in the Umatilla Basin, but this time the emphasis is on politics, and how a small group of powerful people managed to get the state to fund the Oasis Project - a plan to recharge Columbia River water into an aquifer during the high-flow season, then pump it out in the summer when the irrigation demand is high. [Discloure notice: I am a technical reviewer for the group conducting the feasibility study for the Oasis Project.]

What's that about water flowing to power and money?

As an aside, let me put in a plug for the necessity of a Columbia River Basin compact among the basin states. Things are only going to get uglier here.

"This isn't about science or biology. This is about politics." -- Bob Hale, Hermiston, OR, farm executive, quoted in the article.