Friend and colleague Jim Thebaut - journalist, planner, philanthropist, filmmaker - just sent me this piece on the need for a new START (STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty). The relationship between nuclear weapons and water is elucidated.
Time for a New START
Jim Thebaut
ONE NUCLEAR BOMB WILL RUIN YOUR WHOLE DAY! BY THE END OF THE COLD WAR, A SINGLE MISSILE WOULD BE TEN TO FIFTY TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN THE BOMBS DROPPED ON HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI.
The world is much less stable than during the Cold War era. Regions of the world are experiencing destabilizing levels of war, terrorism and crime and the population of the planet is projected to be 9 billion by 2050. Water scarcity, climate change and drought, poverty, disease, loss of agriculture land and food supply could generate nuclear arms proliferation in those regions seeking to secure a better way of life. The process of Arms Control negotiations and the new START Treaty needs to be reconstructed, widen and expanded to include all nuclear power states in order to assure an over-all global reduction of nuclear weapons and a strategy and schedule to ultimately eliminate them entirely in order to assure international security.
The primary legacy of the Cold War is the existence of weapons of mass destruction. Cold War military programs produced over sixty thousand nuclear weapons. Efforts since 1991 at serious disarmament and arms control have reduced the danger of total global destruction but the planet is still at risk and the potential for a nuclear exchange or a catastrophic detonation of a single nuclear devise in a major city or an accident still exists. Even as Russia and the U.S. have been decreasing their nuclear arsenal there has been an increase of nuclear weapon states. Both India and Pakistan have developed nuclear weapons and Iran and North Korea have been using Cold War technology to develop their weapons programs. The potential for a tragic event which kills hundred of thousands or millions of people becomes a greater threat everyday.
The United States and Russian Federation recently completed negotiations on a new START Treaty and the Obama Administration is pushing for the full Senate to ratify the agreement by November. Furthermore, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry is applying pressure to vote the Treaty out of committee as soon as possible.
The new START Treaty is a relic of the Cold War and there are significant reasons why the ratification process of the Treaty should be slowed down and re-evaluated in order to reflect the reality of today's new dangerous world. Obviously its critical the new treaty must establish a level of equality regarding the reduced number of strategic warheads (including missiles with multiple warheads), the means of delivery by land based missiles, submarine launched missiles and nuclear capable bombers. In addition, both countries entire systems need to be modernized in order to assure continued safe command and control and there must be a clear understanding in the Treaty for regular verification.
But also there is an evolving global perspective which needs to be included. The genesis of the nuclear technology was generated by the U.S. and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War and they now have a historical and moral duty to assume responsibility for geopolitical nuclear safety around the world and this accountability should be clearly spelled out in the new START Treaty. Furthermore, the U.S. and Russia needs to include the other nuclear states in the world as participants and signatories in the Treaty in order to establish a comprehensive global safeguard. Those countries should include China, India, Pakistan, Britain, France, and Israel.
The entire intense drama of the Cold War was played out inside the Kremlin and the White House and a miscalculation could have had a deadly outcome. The interplay between the Soviets and the U.S. leaders proved to be a decisive factor in the Cold War. During the era, bi-polar brinkmanship and confrontation was eventually replaced by "Detente", Summit Conferences, Arms Control Negotiations and ultimately the 1972 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) and eventually in 1992 the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). Arms control negotiations help to establish a continuous dialogue between the U.S. and the Soviet Union and the fact a nuclear devise has not been used in nearly seven decades since the bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was because of this continuous open discussion as well as the paradigm of Mutual Assured Destruction, rational leaders and secure command and control.
In today's multi-polar nuclear world, the threat of the use of a nuclear weapon is as great as anytime during the Cold War. In today's new world, which includes rogue states, terrorists, climate change and the humanitarian water crisis it can not be assumed the same degree of reason which occurred during the Cold War will prevail. Consequently, it will require a global effort to offset the threat and this reality needs to be included in the new START Treaty.
A primary example is the prevalent tension and conflict involved in the Cold War nuclear arms race occurring between India and Pakistan. The current size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is a secret and India is building its arsenal without establishing any limits. In 2008 India was the 10th highest military spender and plans to spend from 50 to 55 billion US dollars on its nuclear program thru 2014. Transcending the ethnic and political tensions that have existed between these nuclear power country's since the establishment of Pakistan is water. Water disputes instead of religion and border conflict could trigger a war between India and Pakistan.
Rivers flow between
Another nuclear power is China, which should be incorporated into and included in the START Treaty negotiations They have important geopolitical and economic outreach, significant technological knowledge and a evolving nuclear arsenal. Furthermore, China has been assisting Pakistan in the development of nuclear weapons as a counter to India because of their serious competition for global markets and prestige. This has caused considerable concern in India regarding the potential for military conflict with neighboring China which has stimulated India's military spending. This military build-up reality has further created a dynamic of hostility in Pakistan-India relations.
The U.S. Senate should think twice before ratifying the Treaty and expand its horizons and depth and dimension of its global responsibilities and involvement. The world is clearly on the brink of disaster unless dramatic international solutions are implemented. The immediate reduction and a serious effort in ultimately eliminating nuclear weapons is a necessary and critical step in the process for the world to evolve and transcend into a safe and secure existence. But it will require political will and courage, vision and true statesmanship and the implementation of lasting bipartisan public policy and comprehensive, effective geopolitical strategies in order to accomplish this ultimate objective.
Considering how important water rights are becoming throughout the globe as a source of political destabilization, it's amazing to me that more effort isn't spent protecting it from pollution.
Posted by: Karen | Thursday, 02 September 2010 at 11:52 AM