Michael Wallace,a friend and fellow University of Arizona hydrologist, just sent around his updated forecast for the average annual low of the Pecos River near Pecos, NM, two years' hence.
He sent the following email along with his forecast:
Attached is an update of the realized performance of one of our specialized climate forecast products. This forecast projects the Western U.S. summer annualized streamflow, two years in advance. To emphasize, this is for an ANNUAL Average and it is made TWO YEARS IN ADVANCE.
To the best of our knowledge, there are no other climate forecasters in the world today who can produce this kind of climate accuracy, this far in advance, for an annual average.
Download MWA_Pecos_River_Forecast_Update_19Feb2017
Michael is developing techniques to produce better streamflow predictions using the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). You can read about it here and also check out his website. He is studying for his PhD at the University of New Mexico.
I am fascinated by this work but it's beyond my ken so I won't offer my comments. Looking good, though.
Enjoy, and keep it up, Michael!
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr
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