I just checked out the FMSO homepage (Foreign Military Studies Office) and found this recent report:
Cultural Perspectives, Geopolitics & Energy Security of Eurasia: Is the Next Global Conflict Imminent? by Dr. Mahir J. Ibrahimov; Mr. Gustav A. Otto; COL Lee G. Gentile, Jr.
Download Cultural-perspectives
Most of the papers in the edited volume are not of much interest to WaterWonks, but this 8-page paper caught my eye: 'Why Climate Change is an Issue of National Security' by General W. Chris King, PhD, P.E. The paper runs from pages 113 - 121. It's worth your while.
Here is a link to former Secretary of Defense Hagel's 2013 speech on climate change and national security and military leaders' response to his comments.
Here is a PDF of King's paper: Download King_Why_CC_Issue_Natl_Security
Here are the first few paragraphs.
Introduction
The 2010 National Security Strategy of the United States affirms that,
The danger from climate change is real, urgent, and severe. The change wrought by a warming planet will lead to new con icts over refugees and resources; new suffering from drought and famine; catastrophic natural disasters; and the degradation of land across the globe.
The strategy goes on to say that the United States goal must be to, “Promote dignity by meeting basic human needs.”
The impacts of Climate Change include: global warming of both the atmosphere and the oceans, sea level rise, increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather, changes in amounts and patterns of pre- cipitation, loss of ice and snow cover, acidification of the oceans, and more. Climate change is much more than just the increases of average air temperature. Each of these changes has a significant impact on human security, most directly by denying people their basic human needs. The summative impacts of multiple climate impacts will be devastating for many parts of the world and large numbers of people, mostly in the developing nations. Addressing these human security threats require whole of government solutions and a level of international cooperation yet to be achieved in our world. Failing to address these issues as a global community will yield catastrophic consequences that no nation acting individually can avoid, no matter how powerful.
The overall purpose of this paper is to assist the reader in understanding how climate change has be- come a threat to the national security of all nations and to discuss in strategic terms what actions nations must take in order to address the threats posed by climate change. The paper purports that climate change impacts are seen across the political, economic, and social structure of a nation, and therefore require whole of government efforts to address. The paper utilizes the data and analyses from the United Nations Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) to document the science of climate change. It will not address the climate change denier argument that the observed climate change is all naturally caused. The overwhelming scienti c evidence now available establishes that a signi cant amount of climate change is the direct result of human activity and speci cally the discharge of massive quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere; this data has made the climate denier argument ridic- ulous to even discuss. The paper will establish the linkage between critical impacts of climate change and human security, as re ected in the statements from the US National Security Strategy above. The paper will conclude with some general ideas on how the United States should respond immediately to the risks posed by climate change. A US perspective is taken on the assumption that the US must become a leader in a global climate change effort for such a movement to be successful. It is its obligation as a world power and also justified because much of the climate change seen today is being driven by the results of its voracious appetite for fossil fuels over the last 175 years.
This discussion starts with recognition that, for modern governments, the primary purpose of military forces is to secure and maintain peace for their nations. Peace in this context is not simply the absence of war, but the maintenance of geopolitical stability, which underpins the basic human security. Threats may come from conditions inside the nation or may be caused by pressures from outside its borders. Climate change is creating both internal and external threats for most countries and these threats are growing. For example, the United States recently released a comprehensive analysis of the expected impacts of climate within the United States. The report identifies that there are serious consequences from climate change which will impact all aspects of American life. Unfortunately, this report almost exclusively examines only internal risks while omitting external considerations of climate change that can impact national security. An important goal of this paper is help the public appreciate the relationship between their national security and the exterior threats posed by climate change, even when these threats seem far distant from US borders. To accomplish this goal, the paper will discuss the general nature of the problem which is an environmental security issue. It will then provide a brief background in the science of climate change. The paper will next analyze how the impacts of climate change becomes threats to peace and security in the world. Finally, the concluding comments forecast what actions are necessary to adapt to the most immediate consequences climate change, while mitigating and then reducing the future impacts climate change.
Wonder if anyone in the current administration has read this paper? Shouldn't take too long.
Enjoy!
"This evidence presents a most clear and urgent call to action for the defense sector, but more, for all governments of the world. Deal with climate change now or suffer the impacts for decades to come." - W. Chris King, page 119.
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