Talk about displacement behavior! I stumbled upon this while perusing the FMSO site. It's a brief report (formatted like a term paper) by Robert Feldman from June 2012: It's Not Just Soldiering in a Hotter Environment: Less Discussed Issues of Global Warming Relevant to Military Operations in Africa.
Download FMSO_Soldiering _Hotter_Environment_June2012
No figures or tables; I'll just paste the Introduction and Conclusions below.
Introduction
Global warming - whether anthropogenic in nature or not - according to many scientists is nolonger a prediction...it's here.1 The forecast is for even hotter temperatures, but what is the forecast for where global warming will have its greatest impact, a continent without the resources to mitigate the effects of the temperature rise, a continent with a long history of conflict, and a continent with valuable resources including some which are critical to electronics, jet engines, and other advanced technologies of the modern world? With some predicting global warming will result in even more conflict, another important question is being asked, what are the implications of military operations as the mercury climbs in that part of the world only a few hours by plane from the United States? In other words, with global warming bumping up the temperature, what will be the potential causes of the conflicts, and if the US intervenes, what will it be like to fight there, far away...in Africa?
Numerous papers have already been written about many of the effects global warming will have on military operations, conflicts, or both. Most of these deal with the immediate effects of the heat, such as the rise in sea level as polar ice melts, inundating some islands. Others discuss the massive displacements of people that might occur as they search for fertile farmland, their previous small plots having been baked by the sun, and the likelihood these migrations will result in war. Public health physicians note the increase in available territory for mosquitoes, allowing malaria to spread to regions where it was previously unknown, weakening farmer and soldier alike. These are all incredibly important aspects of global warming related to conflict and military operations, but there are other aspects to this story that are less often told. There will be massive economic losses not just from crop losses but also from destruction of areas popular with ecotourists, with the result that significantly less money will be available for African defense forces. Diseases won't just come from spreading the mosquitoes range but from the increasing preparation and consumption of bushmeat, such as the great apes, as people driven from their arid farmlands invade forests looking for food. Ebola is one such disease, a disease whose very name the press has made almost synonymous with "terrifying." These and other less discussed issues related to the impact of global warming on military operations in Africa will be explored by this paper.
With global warming appearing to already be making physical changes in Africa, it behooves any nation which might become militarily involved there to look at all aspects of known changes - physical, economic, social, and political - and to vigorously search for any that might have been overlooked. It's also necessary to examine how these rising temperatures could possibly cause additional conflicts. Yet another area of study needs to be global warming's impact on the operations of a nation's armed forces should it actually decide to intervene in Africa. The US, with both humanitarian and economic interests there, might someday be one of those intervening nations.
The main controversy surrounding global warming does not seem to be whether or not it is occurring, though to be sure there are some who argue against its existence. The larger controversy, however, appears to be whether or not the cause is anthropogenic. It would be beyond the scope of this paper to argue for or against human activity causing a rise in atmospheric temperature. The majority of scientists support the theory, but heated battles, pun intended, continue to rage. For some the evidence seems solid and overwhelming, for others weak and unimpressive. Other theories have been put forth to explain possible temperature changes, including variations in the solar constant, which despite its name is not constant. Complicating the issue is the addition of politics, economics, and even religious beliefs thrown into the mix. However, for this paper global warming will be accepted as actually occurring, whether caused by natural and/or human forces, and readers are encouraged to examine the controversy in much greater detail in other papers.
Additionally, as a result of this acceptance of global warming, the paper will attempt to extrapolate key findings out to the future, with all of the potential problems that entails. Projections will utilize models incorporating information from the past, but as the prospectus for a stock sale reads, past performance is no indicator of future performance. However, these models, along with what appear right now to be fairly reasonable assumptions, will necessarily have to serve as the basis for the projections. Meanwhile, the present indicators for how global warming will impact Africa are ominous, and how global warming unfolds and its effect on Africa, including possible future military operations there, remains a story waiting to be told.
Cutting to the chase.....
Conclusion
The crystal ball is cloudy, or maybe more fittingly, dusty, making precise projectionsimpossible. Will global warming result in significant changes in military operations in Africa, or will the necessary adjustments be relatively minor? Perhaps the most likely scenario is the middle ground: some large adjustments here, some small ones there, and many that fall in-between. At this point the best that can be done is to formulate some reasonable hypotheses based on past history and what appear to be logical assumptions. Unfortunately, maybe some variables that were ignored in formulating predictions turn out to actually be more important than originally anticipated, completely skewing what seemed like such sensible thoughts.
There have already been numerous predictions regarding what might occur in Africa should global warming occur. Malaria and other insect-borne diseases will increase, heat exhaustion will be more common, and mass migrations of people will occur as their farmland becomes infertile. These and other extrapolations are quite important, and help serve as the basis for many of the projections as to what future military operations might be in Africa. There are, however, less discussed, maybe even overlooked, issues related to global warming and its impact on military operations in Africa. This paper has attempted to describe some of these.
So, with the caveat that nothing is certain, a summary of what the US might reasonably expect to happen in Africa, besides an increased exposure to malaria and a greater likelihood of heat exhaustion, regarding future military ops in Africa is as follows:
1) African governments, under pressure from decreasing revenue, will be unable to meet the needs of their militaries. This will result in potential American allies not being as well trained, not having the appropriate equipment, and not participating as much in foreign peacekeeping missions. Instead, much of our potential allies' time might be spent on projects attempting to mitigate the effects of the rising temperature.
2) African governments increasingly unable to meet the basic needs of their people, might unwillingly provide openings to groups such as Al Qaeda to fill the voids.
3) The resolve to place American troops in certain areas will be tested when outbreaks of diseases such as Ebola, which seems to have come from the pages of a science fiction novel, start to occur.
4) Increasing dust will lead to a host of problems such as decreased visibility, degraded weapons' capabilities, and diseases
5) The increasing presence of solar power stations means they will likely be targeted, either deliberately or accidentally, during conflict.
6) The potential presence of Chinese in trouble spots, complicating situations as their businessmen, and maybe their troops, need to be considered in any planning for military operations.
7) With rising temperatures will likely come increased suffering as well as conflict. America might repeatedly face the tough decision of whether to intervene militarily in Africa for humanitarian reasons. Even ethnic cleansing is no guarantee that it will go in.
It's not only a call to combat ethnic cleaning that might bring American forces into Africa. The United States has important ties to Africa, including increasing reliance on its rare earth minerals, critical to electronics. Still, it's a continent known for its conflicts, so wary of entanglements and still drained from fighting two wars, the American military may protect those ties with a minimum amount of force. In other words, military operations quite limited in scope might be the norm. If American troops have to go in, planners of the military operations will need to remember that with global warming, it is not just soldiering in a hotter environment; there are many less discussed issues which also need to be addressed.
Remember - global warming is not an issue when it comes to our national security.
Enjoy!
"Ice storm rolls from Texas to Tennessee - I'm in Los Angeles and it's freezing. Global warming is a total, and very expensive, hoax!" - Donald J. Trump (2013)
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