Report: 'How the Aral Sea Will Look Like in Foreseeable Future?'

This publication was sent to me by someone who must know that I am a sucker for anything having to do with the water resources of the South Caucasus, Central Asia ('the Stans'), and Iran. I am by no means an expert but have visited all three (only Kazakhstan in Central Asia) and would love to return.

As I said - I'm no expert but this report looks interesting.

How the Aral Sea Will Look Like in Foreseeable Future? was published on 23 February 2019 by Dursun Yildiz in World Water Diplomacy and Science News.

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Some information about the author (from the report):

Dursun Yıldız is a hydropolitics expert and Director of the Hydropolitics Academy Associationlocated in Ankara-Turkey. He is a civil engineer and used to be Deputy Director at the State Hydraulic Works in Turkey; he completed a hydroinformatics post graduate course at the IHE in Delft,t echnical training programme in USBR-USA and a master's degree in Hydropolitics at the Hacettepe University-Turkey. He has over 5 years of teaching experiences in some Turkish Universities and now works as head of his own Hydro Energy & Strategy consulting company located in Ankara. He has published severel international articles and 13 Books. He recieved Most Succesful Reseracher Award on International Water Issues from Turkish Agricultural Association in 2008 and from Central Union of Irrigatıon Cooperatives in 2016.

Summary
In 2011, Together with Ambassador (R) and Hydropolitical Academy founding Member M. Nuri Yildirim we made a technical trip to Central Asia .In this trip 2 hours after we left Kızılorda city to reach Aral Sea , we began to witness the great damage caused to the environment by drying a lake along the dirt road. As the water was drawn from the sea, it also took away the ecological balance. Because of the strong winds in the region, salt and drugs in the vicinity of the lake spread very alarmingly, this problem was felt in the capital of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, which is 500 km away.In this article I'm looking for an answer to the question of whether the Aral Sea will go back or not.

 

1) Introduction
Since the 1960s, the Aral Sea has been severely shrunk due to the excessive use of water resources that feed the lake in the period of USSR for agricultural irrigation. This decrease in the amount of water in the Aral Lake brought many ecological problems for the lake and its surroundings. The area of 33.000 km2 in Aral Lake is completely dried and the mineral content in its water is increased. The lake ecosystem is almost completely destroyed.

In the period between 1911 and 1960, an annual average of 56 billion m3 of water was spilled on the Aral Sea. Since the mid - 1980s, the decline in the Aral Sea water volume has accelerated. It was divided into two part in December 1987. The depth of the small Aral to the north dropped to 12 m. The depth of the Great Aral in the south dropped to 23 m. The Aral Lake, on this date, shrank by 74% in area and 84% in volume .

The area of Aral Lake, which was 67 500 km2 in 1960, decreased to 17 200 km2 in 2003. The most populous countries in the region are also the most industrialized countries. For this reason, these countries need important water to feed their populations as well as to provide water to their industries.

Related with Aral Sea environmental disaster, the protection of the environment in Central Asia encountered two obstacles. The first of these is addressing human needs in front of environmental protection which remain from the period of USSR and the economic obstacle.

The amount of water flowing into the Aral Lake declined rapidly and in 2000 and 2001 The measured average annual flow at observation station located 102 km. far away from the sea showed that discharge was too low to feed the lake.

Cutting to the chase...

6) Results and Evaluations 

What will all these efforts bring for the future of the Aral Sea ? It will bring a potential positive environmental impacts in and around the Northern Aral Sea and the Syrdarya delta would include: 

1. (i) the creation of a freshwater reservoir; 
2. (ii) the filling of lagoons and delta lakes; 
3. (iii) an increase in wetlands; 
4. (iv) a reduction in salt and dust storms; 
5. (v) the restoration if biological diversity; and 
6. (vi) an improved ecological system. 

The actual impact would depend on the design water level in the Northern Aral Sea .The progress in the Northern Aral has increased hopes for the return of the Aral Sea. However, the complete return of the Sea will not be as easy as the Northern Aral Part. It is clear that engineering structures and facilities provided by the geography have helped to solve the problem in this part. However, the solution for South Aral is more dependent on water management and hydro-political relations among the riparian state. 

The alternative of carrying water from the other basin to the Aral Sea may not be a sustainable solution. Therefore, instead of bringing water out of the basin, the solution should be searched primarily within the basin. This makes it possible to link the return of the Aral Sea with the more efficient use of water in the basin countries. The water resources in the Aral Basin are threatened by the inefficient use of water as well as the climate change effects. 

If one ask that will the Aral Sea come back? In fact ,it is difficult to give a favorable response this question for a near future. Therefore, we assume that the lake, which was lost in half a century as a whole, will be able to come back in a longer period and it will occur part by part. 

The annual average water of the Ceyhun River pouring into the Southern Aral Sea is approximately twice that of Seyhun, which is still pouring into the Northern Aral . However, this water is used in a very inefficient way to reach the lake. It seems to be difficult to fill a lake volume about 10 times larger than the North Aral. 

As a result, there are many problems to the return of South Aral Sea, ranging from the inefficient use of water in the basin, the negative consequences of global climate change and the geopolitical obstacles to the softening of hydro-political relations among riparian state. 

I regret to say that the Aral Sea will also be given by next generation as a live example of an environmental disaster created by the water mismanagement. 

 

Hard to enjoy this report. Your comments are welcomed.

Here is a 2010 paper by noted expert Philip Micklin: The Past, Present, and Future Aral Sea. And another one (2016): The Future Aral Sea: Hope and Despair. 

"Sooner or later, wittingly or unwittingly, we must pay for every intrusion on the natural environment." - Barry Commoner


Comments

[EJ Hanford]

The root cause is that humans do not learn the lessons of history and as a result repeat actions lead to disastrous results yet again.
Desertification, land subsidence, salinization of fresh water resources.... they all come down to humans taking what they want with little on-going regard for all other species and the environment.
All to that the propensity of humans to expect that "status quo" is the norm....when in reality the only 'constant' in Nature is change.
When will they ever learn?