I just ran across this open-access paper in Nature Communications: Compound Climate Events Transform Electrical Power Shortfall Risk in the Pacific Northwest by S. W. D. Turner, N. Voisin, J. Fazio, D. Hua & M. Jourabchi, Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 8 (2019).
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Abstract
Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation—highlighting an important role of compound events.
Cutting to the chase...
Discussion
A planner or policy-maker trying to interpret and respond to these results might consider the following practical implications. First, the dramatic shift in vulnerability of the system from winter to summer highlights the importance of informing resource expansion planning with the combined effect of climate change on load and water availability. For instance, there are certain actions that might be taken in light of the potential for increased summer event frequency. Demand response measures may be viewed more favorably, and alternative joint power-river operating methods could be explored. Second, given the apparent sensitivity of shortfall severity to climate change, it may be useful to know how damage or cost varies according to shortfall duration and magnitude. This has to be studied in light of the potential for non-linearity in costs of emergency actions (e.g., compensation to industry for loss of power). For example, a 5000 MW shortfall is likely to be more than five times as costly as a 1000 MW shortfall if it exhausts standby and emergency options, causing rolling brown-outs for customers. Incorporating this level of understanding will be necessary to make risk-based planning decisions based on an analysis of shortfall events. Third, it will be important to consider uncertainty in the load and hydropower dispatch projections, and the conditions under which the forcing effects used in this study could be mitigated or exacerbated. Important considerations might include evolving market and regulatory structures that promote inter-regional planning, transmission, and distribution constraints, changes to the Columbia River Treaty, and new environmental regulations. There may also be socioeconomic changes that affect the relationship between load and temperature. Homes that currently lack electrified cooling may install new air conditioning systems. The prevalence of air conditioning systems in Portland (Oregon,), for example, increased from ~44% of households in 2002 to more than 70% of households in 2016. The future relationship between temperature and load will depend on whether and for how long this uptake trend will continue before reaching saturation.The Western electricity crisis of 2001 was referred to as a “perfect storm”—the culmination of a decade of underinvestment and a steadily widening supply-demand deficit, exposed by an extreme dry period with impaired hydropower conditions in the Pacific Northwest. The crisis wrought enormous financial costs for utilities in the Pacific Northwest, including substantial compensation paid to the aluminum industry to halt production. Today, rigorous, forward-looking planning ensures that power systems are built out to be more resilient for now and in the future. Yet whilst planning makes allowances for expected socioeconomic change, including population growth and industrial development, the possible impacts of climate change on shortfall risk are rarely evaluated. Currently, the science literature contains only a small and piecemeal collection of studies examining climate impacts on grid operations, with each study focusing on disparate aspects of the power system. For example, a study of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection found that grid reliability is sensitive to summer heatwaves, which may raise peak cooling loads and derate gas turbine plants simultaneously Similarly, a study of grid operators in Germany and Austria demonstrated a need for additional generating capacity to meet growing summer peak loads for cooling. The importance of compound effects demonstrated in the present work suggests that what planners will ultimately need is an assessment that combines all potential climate-related impacts across a spectrum of climate futures and policy scenarios.
In this study we apply lower-bound, conservative climate change scenarios to demonstrate a measurable impact of compound events under the most conservative climate scenarios available. Summer shortfall risk would be intensified further under more extreme forcing that is projected by other models, or which may be expected later in the century (see Supplementary Figure 1). Planning for such effects will be particularly important for the Pacific Northwest, which, like many other power grids throughout the world, exports electricity across adjacent grids. Further research for this region may be directed toward improved understanding of climate impacts on supply and demand under a broader range of climate futures, including the imminent river flows and reservoir rule curves to be produced under the auspices of the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC).
Enjoy!
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