Eva Lipiec authored this CRS report (updated 10 August 2023):'2023 Hurricane Outlooks and 2022 Hurricane Season Review'.
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Updated 10 August 2023
Many in Congress have expressed interest in increasing understanding of tropical cyclones and improving forecasts to help their constituents prepare for the yearly hurricane season. These improvements may potentially decrease a storm’s impact on an individual or community. The Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is responsible for monitoring tropical cyclones as they develop and issuing forecasts, including track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall.
NOAA defines a tropical cyclone as a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation.” According to NOAA, tropical cyclones include the following:
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Tropical depressions—maximum sustained winds of ≤ 38 miles per hour (mph).
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Tropical storms—maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. NOAA typically names a storm once it reaches this strength.
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Hurricanes—maximum sustained winds of ≥ 74 mph, corresponding to at least category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricanes may also be called typhoons or cyclones, depending on the storm’s location.
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Major hurricanes—maximum sustained winds of ≥ 111 mph, corresponding to category 3, 4, or 5.
NOAA releases seasonal hurricane outlooks relevant to the United States, including for the North Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific Oceans, in May before each hurricane season begins. Such outlooks include information on the number of potential named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific season begins May 15, whereas the Atlantic and Central Pacific seasons begin June 1. All seasons run through November 30. Tropical cyclones, however, may form outside of these time frames. In August, NOAA typically updates the Atlantic outlook but not the Pacific outlooks. Multiple nonfederal entities also publish outlooks. These forecasts rely, in part, on NOAA’s collected and shared information.
2023 Hurricane Season Outlooks
In May 2023, NOAA issued its initial 2023 Atlantic hurricane outlook (Table 1), indicating a 40% likelihood of a near-normal season rather than an above-normal (30%) or below-normal (30%) season. The hurricane season was expected to be less active than in recent years, due to the interaction of several climate factors. These factors include the high potential for the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Central and East-Central Equatorial Pacific (El Niño phenomenon), which wouldsuppress Atlantic hurricane activity. These suppressive factors were expected to compete with warmer- than-average sea surface temperatures and weaker winds in the Atlantic Ocean and an enhanced West African monsoon, which were likely to produce and sustain Atlantic storms.NOAA issued an updated outlook in August 2023. In the update, NOAA increased the likelihood of an above-normal season (now 60% likelihood) and decreased the near-normal (25%) or below-normal (15%) likelihoods. NOAA noted that El Niño had been slow to develop, allowing for storms to more easily develop.
NOAA released its 2023 outlooks for the Eastern Pacific (Table 2) and Central Pacific hurricane seasons in May 2023. NOAA anticipates that the Eastern Pacific area is likely to experience an above-normal season (55%) rather than a near-normal (35%) or below-normal (10%) season. NOAA predicts a 50% chance of an above-normal season for the Central Pacific, rather than a near-normal (35%) or below- normal (15%) season. NOAA expects a total of four to seven tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific in 2023 (the average is four to five tropical cyclones per year).
2022 Hurricane Season
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season aligned with NOAA’s May and August 2022 outlooks (Table 3, Figure 1). The first storm of the Atlantic season, Tropical Storm Alex, formed from the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, which traveled across Central America from the Eastern Pacific. The season also featured three major hurricanes: Bonnie, Fiona, and Ian, which caused damage across multiple states and countries.
The 2022 Eastern Pacific hurricane season (Table 4, Figure 2) began with Hurricane Agatha, which formed May 28, 2022. The season featured four major hurricanes: Bonnie, Darby, Orlene, and Roslyn.
Can't wait for the 2023 Caribbean season. I have to go to Honduras. Funny!
Enjoy!
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