I think this is the first CRS report (10 March 2021) devoted to the geopolitical and environmental issues in Antarctica. The Arctic is usually a 'hotter' (pardon my word choice) issue because of its natural resources, trade/navigation and national security implications. Maybe China's interest in Antarctica is a game-changer. I suspect this report will get updates, like the Arctic one.
The authors are Pervaze A. Sheikh, Bruce Vaughn and Kezee Procita: 'Antarctica: Overview of Geopolitical and Environmental Issues'.
Download CRS_Report_Antarctica_Overview_Geo_Env_Issues_10March2021
Click on the graphics to display/enlarge them. They are not placed in the same locations they occupy in the report. The Summary, Introduction and Issues for Congress are the only sections pasted below. Footnotes have been deleted.
SUMMARY
Geopolitical and environmental developments are increasing international focus on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Stakeholders contend these developments may have political, economic, and security implications for the United States and the rest of the world. Geopolitical concerns center on the rising presence of China and Russia in the Antarctic and the integrity of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), which provides a framework for governing the region. Environmental issues, particularly those related to climate change, also are prominent in Antarctica, due to current and projected future rates of melting ice in the region, which cause some scientists to assert that Antarctica represents a significant source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions. Much of the research on understanding and projecting rates of melting ice and its potential contribution to global sea-level rise relies on satellite data, as well as scientific work conducted in Antarctica. Most of the research done by U.S. scientists is overseen and funded by the National Science Foundation. Other environmental issues in Antarctica concern its ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources.
The Antarctic Treaty, the central part of the ATS, established the legal framework for Antarctica and guaranteed free access and research rights for the international community. The Antarctic Treaty was signed in 1959. There are 54 parties to the treaty; of these, 29 are consultative parties, which have the right to participate in decisionmaking. The consultative parties include the United States, Australia, Russia, and China, among others. In its preamble, the Antarctic Treaty states that “it is in the interest of all mankind that Antarctica shall continue to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and shall not become the scene or object of international discord.” The treaty also set aside all previous claims to land in Antarctica, essentially making it a common area for research activities.
Congressional interest in Antarctica stems to a large extent from geopolitical and environmental issues. Members introduced legislation in the 116th Congress that would have regulated expeditions and tourism activities in the region and addressed environmental emergencies (e.g., oil spills) in the Antarctic ecosystem that result from such activities. The former Trump Administration addressed security concerns in the region, issuing a presidential memorandum that called for a new fleet of polar security icebreakers to protect national interests in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. In the future, geopolitical, climate, and natural resources concerns in Antarctica might stimulate Congress to explore a number of questions related to the region, including what role Antarctica may play in the changing global order
INTRODUCTION
Geopolitical and environmental developments are increasing international focus on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. The interdisciplinary nature of various stakeholders concerned with Antarctica—including scientists, diplomats, defense personnel, members of the media, academics, and others in both domestic and international contexts—makes for a complex dynamic. Some of these stakeholders contend that current developments could have environmental, political, economic, and security implications for the United States and the rest of the world.For example, estimates of current and projected rates of melting ice sheets and glaciers in Antarctica cause some scientists to assert that the region represents one of the largest potential sources for global sea-level rise under future warming scenarios. Sea-level rise can have significant effects on coastal cities and infrastructure in the United States and other parts of the world, absent human measures to mitigate or adapt to these effects, according to stakeholders.
Geopolitical concerns center on the rising presence of China and Russia in the Antarctic and the integrity of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), which provides a framework for governing the region. Antarctica is not occupied or claimed by any country, and it is governed through the Antarctic Treaty. There have been few reports of incidents that conflict with the treaty; however, some stakeholders note there is potential for disagreements regarding the extraction and protection of natural resources in and around the continent (e.g., fisheries), the physical footprint of bases and access to them, and the nature of activities conducted by countries in the region.
During the 116th Congress, the Trump Administration and some in Congress addressed U.S. interests in Antarctica in several ways. The Trump Administration issued a presidential memorandum stating that the United States requires a fleet of polar security icebreakers that are tested and deployable by FY2029 to protect national interests in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Some in the 116th Congress demonstrated interest in Antarctica through legislation under Title VII of the Securing American Leadership in Science and Technology Act of 2020 (H.R. 5685), which would have addressed, in part, expeditions and tourism in Antarctica and environmental emergencies in the Antarctic ecosystem that result from such activities. As of the publication of this report, there are no bills in the 117th Congress that specifically address Antarctica.
Geopolitical, climate, and natural resource concerns in Antarctica might stimulate Congress to explore a number of questions related to the region, including what role Antarctica may play in the changing global order and its potential to contribute to sea-level rise.
Cutting to the chase...
ISSUES FOR CONGRESS
Congress may consider its role in seeking to protect or promote U.S. strategic, economic, environmental, and scientific interests in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.
Geopolitical Considerations
The Antarctic Treaty binds countries together in forming policies that govern the continent. Some have questioned how resilient the treaty will be to changes initiated by parties. Congress may examine the treaty’s resiliency to change and consider for what purposes the treaty could be challenged in the future. For example, some analysts contend that China is seeking new flexibility in implementation of the treaty. These observers allege that several incidents over the last fewyears support this view: China built its latest research base on Antarctica without completing a required environmental impact assessment; China and Russia cooperated to delay the implementation of new MPAs that would protect fisheries; and China proposed the creation of a “Chinese management district” of approximately 20,000 square kilometers where foreigners were to be restricted (the proposal was rejected). Congress might consider whether this reported progression of actions could be aimed at supporting Chinese territorial claims in Antarctica.China has increased its presence in Antarctica in other ways. For example, China has increased krill fishing and expanded tourism in the region, and it is the only country to build research stations on the continent since 2000. China currently has four research stations in Antarctica, with plans for a fifth station. Some stakeholders are concerned about China’s increased presence and its implications for the ATS and for other nations. Congress might consider how expanding Chinese activities and presence in Antarctica could affect the expectations, strategies, and policies of countries with existing territorial claims in the region such as Australia, the United Kingdom, Argentina, and Chile. Further, Congress might consider how China could seek to alter the ATS to benefit its activities and presence in Antarctica.
Some stakeholders contend that receding sea ice levels will make Antarctica more accessible for longer periods of time and will provide an incentive for exploiting fisheries and other natural resources (e.g., oil and gas). Greater accessibility could increase the need for monitoring and regulatory enforcement of the Antarctic Treaty. The United States, the Netherlands, and South Korea have complained about the difficulty of carrying out inspections of facilities and proposed the creation of a database on inspections to improve transparency. More than a dozen stations, including Chinese and Russian ones, have yet to be inspected, according to some reports. Congress might consider whether increased monitoring by the United States and other countries and improved transparency are necessary to adequately inspect facilities and monitor fishing and scientific activities. Congress also might consider whether expanding the U.S. Antarctic fleet would facilitate an increase in monitoring and match heightened presence by other countries. Lastly, some stakeholders note the Antarctic Treaty does not have a mechanism to sanction parties that violate the treaty; Congress may consider encouraging the Administration to work with other parties to enhance compliance mechanisms under the treaty and pursue infractions to the treaty through other international organizations, such as the United Nations.
Natural Resource Considerations
Some stakeholders are concerned about the extraction and preservation of natural resources in Antarctica, even though these issues are addressed in the ATS. Presently, mineral resource extraction in Antarctica is banned; however, some biological resources are declining, such as certain fisheries and some habitat. Further, some stakeholders speculate that towing icebergs from Antarctica to cities in South Africa and the Middle East to address freshwater issues could be proposed in the future. Congress might consider options for U.S. roles in addressing the balance between protecting natural resources and allowing extractive uses in Antarctica as it relates to biodiversity, fishing, and minerals.
For example, Congress might consider new or enhanced approaches to improve the conservation of biodiversity in Antarctica through the ATS. Some scientists assert that the current approaches to conservation of biodiversity in Antarctica are inadequate, given the threats of climate-driven changes to the Antarctic environment as well as human activities on the continent. Some stakeholders propose the creation of an integrated biodiversity strategy and action plan for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean under the ATS to provide a pathway for conserving biodiversity. Further, they suggest deploying tools and creating a plan for measuring and monitoring Antarctic biodiversity. Some stakeholders might question the value of this approach and whether it would garner support from all consultative parties. These stakeholders might contend that increased protection could hinder the development of new stations.
In addition, Congress may consider issues related to Antarctic fisheries. Some stakeholders express concern that certain fisheries in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are overexploited; they contend the Antarctic Treaty needs additional measures to protect these fisheries. Further, scientists note that changes in climate and sea ice extent can affect fisheries and some contend that precautionary based ecosystem management should be employed to counter these effects. In contrast, some stakeholders contend the treaty overly restricts resource extraction and should be more lenient for sustainable extraction. For example, these stakeholders assert that fisheries in the Southern Ocean should have fewer fishing restrictions on species such as krill. Congress may consider encouraging the Administration to press other consultative parties to ratify the creation of MPAs along the coast of Eastern Antarctica and in the Weddell Sea to improve conservation of marine resources. These MPAs would cover krill fishing grounds, according to scientists. The CCAMLR attempted to establish these MPAs in 2020; however, they were not implemented due to Chinese and Russian opposition to restrictions on fishing, among other resources. Many scientists perceive an urgent need to create protected areas before climate change, fishing, and human activities such as tourism and research stations further affect the region.
Antarctica may have undocumented commercial mineral resources, including oil, coal, and iron ore. Congress also may consider whether possible future efforts to increase natural resource extraction in Antarctica hold the potential for instigating future disagreements and conflicts in the region. Some stakeholders contend the United States and other countries should consider how to address portions of the Antarctic Treaty that affect mining if they are debated earlier than 2048, when several parts of the ATS will come up for possible renewal or modifications. Some geologists counter this concern by noting that successfully extracting mineral deposits would require overcoming hazardous conditions and potentially mining through a thick ice sheet. Further, transporting products over long stretches on the Southern Ocean might be treacherous and costly.
Melting Ice and Sea-Level Rise
Several studies report that melting ice in Antarctica is contributing to increases in annual average rates of global sea-level rise. Several scientists, however, highlight the current scientific uncertainty of future melting rates in Antarctica and question how melting rates and subsequent sea-level rise will respond to future anthropogenic climate change. The 2019 IPCC Special Report stated that there is a need to better understand polar glaciers, ice sheets, and their contributions to sea-level rise; specifically, longer and better quantifiable data are needed, along with a better attribution of natural versus anthropogenic drivers of change. Scientists and policymakers also note that reducing scientific uncertainty and more precisely projecting Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise could help society manage risks of sea-level rise.Scientific research on Antarctica, both through on-the-ground fieldwork in research stations and through remote satellite observations, may contribute to a better scientific understanding of the region. Improved scientific understanding of Antarctica could have implications for better understanding of global phenomena, such as global weather, ocean circulation, and the relationship between ice dynamics and sea-level rise. Congress might consider the level of U.S. support for research on ice dynamics in Antarctica. Congress also might consider if there is a sufficient level of scientific collaboration and sharing of scientific findings among countries doing research in Antarctica. Further, Congress may weigh the usefulness of developing a larger footprint (e.g., more scientific bases and infrastructure) in Antarctica to facilitate U.S. and collaborative research.
Antarctica and COVID-19
The threat of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infiltrating research bases in Antarctica led several countries to reduce personnel in research bases and limit research activities in mid-2020. There were no recorded cases of the COVID-19 on Antarctica until December 2020, when the Chilean Army reported 36 cases at its Bernardo O’Higgins research station on the Antarctic Peninsula. U.S. research station administrators note that bases do not have medical facilities to adequately address a full-scale outbreak of COVID-19. To keep the virus from the continent, the United States, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom in June 2020 announced plans to partially cancel their summer (October 2020-March 2021) field research. Other countries announced they would rely on remote equipment or limited staffing. Some experts assert that activities by China and Russia are being maintained.Congress might consider how to ensure long-term research and continuous data collection are not interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, whether research and data collection were interrupted, and how limited staff might keep the work going. Further, Congress may address whether the United States should consider encouraging China, Russia, and other countries to share information collected during this period, especially given the reduced presence of the United States and other countries in Antarctica.
Enjoy!
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when they were created." -- Albert Einstein
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