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CRS Report: 'Changes in the Arctic - Background and Issues for Congress' Updated: 27 November 2019

This is another CRS report that is updated periodically.

Just the other day I heard a story on NPR about increased Russian activity in the Arctic and the wariness of the Norwegians and others.  

So here is the latest update by Ronald O'Rourke at al. 'Changes in the Arctic - Background and Issues for Congress'

Download CRS_Report_Changes_Arctic_27Nov2019  

Summary
The diminishment of Arctic sea ice has led to increased human activities in the Arctic, and has heightened interest in, and concerns about, the region’s future. The United States, by virtue of Alaska, is an Arctic country and has substantial interests in the region.

Record low extents of Arctic sea ice over the past decade have focused scientific and policy attention on links to global climate change and projected ice-free seasons in the Arctic within decades. These changes have potential consequences for weather in the United States, access to mineral and biological resources in the Arctic, the economies and cultures of peoples in the region, and national security.

Although there is significant international cooperation on Arctic issues, the Arctic is increasingly being viewed by some observers as a potential emerging security issue. Some of the Arctic coastal states, particularly Russia, have taken actions to enhance their military presences in the high north. U.S. military forces, particularly the Navy and Coast Guard, have begun to pay more attention to the region in their planning and operations.

The five Arctic coastal states—the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark (of which Greenland is a territory)—have made or are in the process of preparing submissions to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf regarding the outer limits of their extended continental shelves. The Russian submission includes the underwater Lomonosov Ridge, a feature that spans a considerable distance across the center of the Arctic Ocean.

Two of the Coast Guard’s three polar icebreakers—Polar Star and Polar Sea—have exceeded their intended 30-year service lives, and Polar Sea is not operational. The Coast Guard has initiated a project to build up to three new heavy polar icebreakers. On May 12, 2011, representatives from the member states of the Arctic Council signed an agreement on cooperation on search and rescue in the Arctic.

The diminishment of Arctic ice could lead in coming years to increased commercial shipping on two trans-Arctic sea routes—the Northern Sea Route close to Russia, and the Northwest Passage close to Alaska and through the Canadian archipelago—though the rate of increase in the use of these routes might not be as great as sometimes anticipated in press accounts. International guidelines for ships operating in Arctic waters have been recently updated.

Changes to the Arctic brought about by warming temperatures will likely allow more exploration for oil, gas, and minerals. Warming that causes permafrost to melt could pose challenges to onshore exploration activities. Increased oil and gas exploration and tourism (cruise ships) in the Arctic increase the risk of pollution in the region. Cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters will be more difficult than in other areas, primarily because effective strategies for cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters have yet to be developed.

Large commercial fisheries exist in the Arctic. The United States is currently meeting with other countries regarding the management of Arctic fish stocks. Changes in the Arctic could affect threatened and endangered species, and could result in migration of fish stocks to new waters. Under the Endangered Species Act, the polar bear was listed as threatened on May 15, 2008. Arctic climate change is also expected to affect the economies, health, and cultures of Arctic indigenous peoples.

Here is just one issue for Congress:

Climate Change and Loss of Arctic Sea Ice
Record low extents of Arctic sea ice in 2012 and 2007 have focused scientific and policy attention on climate changes in the high north, and on the implications of projected ice-free seasons in the Arctic within decades. The Arctic has been projected by several scientists to be ice-free in most late summers as soon as the 2030s.This opens opportunities for transport through the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route, extraction of potential oil and gas resources, and expanded fishing and tourism (Figure 3).

More broadly, physical changes in the Arctic include warming ocean, soil, and air temperatures; melting permafrost; shifting vegetation and animal abundances; and altered characteristics of Arctic cyclones. All these changes are expected to affect traditional livelihoods and cultures in the region and survival of polar bear and other animal populations, and raise risks of pollution, food supply, safety, cultural losses, and national security. Moreover, linkages (“teleconnections”) between warming Arctic conditions and extreme events in the mid-latitude continents are increasingly evident, identified in such extreme events as the heat waves and fires in Russia in 2010; severe winters in the eastern United States and Europe in 2009/2010 and in Europe in 2011/2012; and Indian summer monsoons and droughts. Hence, changing climate in the Arctic suggests important implications both locally and across the Hemisphere.

Like the rest of the globe, temperatures in the Arctic have varied84 but show a significant warming trend since the 1970s, and particularly since 1995. The annual average temperature for the Arctic region (from 60o to 90o N) is now about 1.8o F warmer than the “climate normal” (the average from 1961 to 1990). Temperatures in October-November are now about 9o F above the seasonal normal. Scientists have concluded that most of the global warming of the last three decades is very likely caused by human-related emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG, mostly carbon dioxide); they expect the GHG-induced warming to continue for decades, even if, and after, GHG concentrations in the atmosphere have been stabilized. The extra heat in the Arctic is amplified by processes there (the “polar amplification”) and may result in irreversible changes on human timescales.

The observed warmer temperatures along with rising cyclone size and strength in the Arctic have reduced sea ice extent, thickness, and ice that persists year-round (“perennial ice”); natural climate variability has likely contributed to the record low ice extents of 2007 and 2012. The 2007 minimum sea ice extent was influenced by warm Arctic temperatures and warm, moist winds blowing from the North Pacific into the central Arctic, contributing to melting and pushing ice toward and into the Atlantic past Greenland. Warm winds did not account for the near-record sea ice minimum in 2008. In early August 2012, an unusually large storm with low pressure developed over the Arctic, helping to disperse the already weak ice into warmer waters and accelerating its melt rate. By August 24, 2012, sea ice extent had shrunk below the previous observed minimum of late September 2007.

Modeling of GHG-induced climate change is particularly challenging for the Arctic, but it consistently projects warming through the 21st century, with annual average Arctic temperature increases ranging from +1° to +9.0° C (+2° to +19.0° F), depending on the GHG scenario and model used. While such warming is projected by most models throughout the Arctic, some models project slight cooling localized in the North Atlantic Ocean just south of Greenland and Iceland. Most warming would occur in autumn and winter, “with very little temperature change projected over the Arctic Ocean” in summer months.

Due to observed and projected climate change, scientists have concluded that the Arctic will have changed from an ice-covered environment to a recurrent ice-free ocean (in summers) as soon as the late 2030s. The character of ice cover is expected to change as well, with the ice being thinner, more fragile, and more regionally variable. The variability in recent years of both ice quantity and location could be expected to continue.

The next section deals with the geopolitical environment. Give it a read!

Excellent overview. Enjoy!

"Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups." -- John Kenneth Galbraith

Video: Youth and Water in Central Asia! WaterCafe 23 October: Blue Peace Index on Colorado River

1) Water and Peace 2.0 - Youth Outlook 2019

This video won the main prize in the Imagine Blue Peace competition sponsored by the Geneva Water Hub and the World Youth Parliament for Water! Here is the news release.

Three of our OSU Central Asian MS students Bota Sharipova (Kazakhstan), Nataliya Chemayeva (Turkmenistan), and Nargiza Osmonova (Kyrgyzstan) were intimately involved in the video's creation.

Title: Imagine Blue Peace Finalist: “Water and Peace 2.0 Youth Outlook, 2019”

Descriptive Teaser: Vision of young water specialists on water and peace using the case of Central Asia. Made by Bota Sharipova (WYPW), Nataliya Chemayeva (WYPW), Nargiza Osmonova (WYPW), Mirsaid Uzakov (WYPW), Tim Nolden (WYN) and Farhad Safi (CAY4W), 2019. The themes covered in the video include: social inclusion & stakeholder participation; transboundary river basins & aquifers, water, peace, and youth.

Thank you so much for your overall support, as always!

Here is a link to the video.

2) WaterCafe at Oregon State University on 23 October

Join WaterCafe on 23 October to assess how US states are managing the water resources of Colorado River!

WaterCafe will be conducted at Oregon State University on 23 October 2019 from 3 to 5 pm (Strand Agricultural Hall 363) to calculate the Blue Peace Index (BPI) of the Colorado River Basin. During two hours participants - Masters and PhD students from OSU - will work to assess management of shared water resources in 7 states of the USA accross five pillars: 1) policy & legal frameworks; 2) institutional arrangements and participation,  3) water management instruments, infrastructure and financing; and 2) cooperation. After deriving results of the assessment willing participants will be invited to provide video feedback on the indices which would be shared with creators and authors of the Index.

There will be a imited number of participants – save your space by registering here. 

More information about Blue Peace Index and the original methodology here. 

The event is organized jointly by the World Youth Parliament for Water (WYPW) and OSU Hydrophiles.

NB: Participants are kindly asked to come with their own laptops. Light snacks will be provided during the event.

Flyer:

Download Blue-Peace-flyer-final

Enjoy!

“Wars are poor chisels for carving out peaceful tomorrows.” – Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Article in Harvard International Review: 'High and Dry - Central Asia’s Failure to Avert the Impending Water Crisis'

This 2017 article by Alisher Ilkmanov appeared in the Harvard International Review: 'High and Dry - Central Asia’s Failure to Avert the Impending Water Crisis'.

The graphic is from here.

Download High_and_Dry_Central_Asias_Failure_to_Avert

Introduction
In 2016, the World Resources Institute published a map called Water Stress by Country, comparing the shortages of fresh water experienced by countries across the world. This map clearly indicates the Mongolian-Arabian belt of high water stress, which includes Central Asia, along with Mongolia, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and the Arabian Peninsula. As a result of a number of factors, it can be argued that these countries belong to a zone of coming crisis, a lack of fresh water.

A study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, operating under the auspices of the United Nations, shows that since the beginning of the twentieth century the overall temperature in the region has increased by 1-2 percent, and one can expect further raising by 2-4 percent in the coming decades. According to the World Bank, this trend may result in a 11 percent fall in the region’s GDP in the next 20 years.

Central Asia’s main sources of water resources are two major river basins, the Amudarya and Syrdarya, both of which are tributaries of the Aral Sea, which used to be one of the world largest lakes. According to forecasts, due to the expected melting of mountain glaciers, the river runoff in the Amudarya river basin will be reduced by 30 percent, compared with the average annual runoff over the past 10 years. This will lead to increased spring runoff, causing more flooding, as well as dramatically reduced water availability in the summer, causing more droughts. There is no need to say that this trend will most severely affect agriculture, a dominant sector of the economy in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as southern Kazakhstan.

Are countries in the region prepared to face this scenario? Do all of them have adequate awareness of this issue? At the very least, there are no signs of discussions in the public sphere going on in the region on this subject.

The coming shortage of fresh water is only part of the broader set of water scarcity problems in Central Asia. These problems also include a lack of irrigation water for agriculture, as well as the pollution of the Amudarya and Syrdarya by high content of salts and agrochemicals from irrigation runoff. As a result, we are witnessing a social and economic crisis in the regions located downstream from the two main rivers, as well as declining quality of life in those areas, as populations experience water shortages and are forced to consume water with high salt content.

Perhaps some of the spring floods could be stored by implementing Managed Aquifer Recharge, similar to what Maria Gibson and I have been doing in the Yakima Valley in Washington State, USA.The hazard could be reduced and the water stored underground for later use. Here is a Texas case study.

Cutting to the chase...

Conclusion
As we can see, the solution to the problem of conservation and rational use of water resources requires a complex set of measures at the national and regional levels, and most importantly, the development of robust institutions. If the formation of institutions does not work at the national level, it is unlikely that we will see the emergence of capable institutions on a regional scale. It seems that regional governments and local populations are not prepared to meet the challenge and prevent an impending water crisis. As for international organizations, agencies, and donors, although they want to help countries in Central Asia solve these problems, they are not able to replace these governments and do the work that these governments are supposed to do themselves.

Given the current state of affairs, I remain quite skeptical about the possibility of solving key problems of a looming water shortage in the region. Perhaps, an old saying better reflects what we can expect in observable future: “The worse the better.” Until the people of Central Asia begin experiencing real hardships due to lack of water, they are unlikely to confront the government with a strong political will and desire for change.

Enjoy!

“The worse the better.” - Alisher Ilkmanov

Transboundary Twofer! 1) Report: Water as a Potential Conflict Factor in Central Asia; 2) Book: Transboundary Hydro-Governance

1) Water as a Potential Conflict Factor in Central Asia is a 2015 paper by Eva Lackovičová, a student at Prague's University of Economics.  

Download Water_As_A_Potential_Conflict_Factor

Introduction
Water belongs to the most important resources and for human life it is a need and a must. However, even in the 21st century, there are still countries and their citizens which lack water resources for production, consumption, clean drinking water for everyday use. International organizations, such as the UN, try hard to secure this right to all the people in the world and to make water accepted as a public good for the benefit of all. Although they are still not fully successful, the whole international community must continue in these actions. Moreover, the problem is that in some parts of the world, water can become a cause of conflicts and disputes. It can happen for a number of reasons, which will be described later in the paper. In my paper, I decided to take a closer look at the region of Central Asia, because I believe, that this region has a huge potential for future development and water is a crucial element in all the relations in the region for a long time. I have decided to make a hypothesis saying that water is a conflict factor in the region of Central Asia and can lead to conflicts in the future.

In the first chapter, I will define the region from geographical and socio-economic point of view. In order to be able to analyse the region objectively, we need to know these information. Geographical position of the countries in the region determines the climate conditions which consequently affect countries´ relation to water and the whole water situation in the region. Historical and socio-economic background is important for us in order to understand the situation and trace back the origins of the water problem. Furthermore, as all the countries in this region were part of the USSR, it is also an important part of their history and it still has its legacy there. Thus, I will look at the water management during the Soviet times, as well as after the dissolution.

The second chapter provides a theoretical background for this topic, as I try to define some of the important approaches and opinions on the issue of potential water conflicts and water scarcity. The number of researchers and scholars who are dealing with this topic is still increasing as it becomes a more pressing issue. Nevertheless, I tried to provide readers with number of authors, which I find crucial for this analysis and I find their arguments most suitable for the topic. Although, I believe that there are also other works of other authors, which are also relevant, it is not possible to cover all of them. One of the best known authors dealing with water related issues and conflicts is Mr. Peter Gleick and after reviewing his work, I have decided that his approach will provide a cornerstone for the analysis of conflict factors.

Conclusion
In the previous three chapters, I have tried to find out whether water is a potential conflict factor in the region of Central Asia and if it is likely to become one in the future. In the introduction, I have set up a hypothesis that it is such, and it can lead to conflicts in the future. In order to be able to give an answer statement for this hypothesis, I gathered information from many sources about geographical, socio-economic realities and water management structures during the Soviet period and after. To support the analysis with relevant arguments and approaches, I have researched works of scholars dealing with this issue as well as reports and analysis of mostly foreign authors. Since I found one approach talking directly about water related issues and conflict factors of water and water systems, I have decided to take it as a main approach to test in the given region. Then, I tried to show that there is a conflict potential in the region related to water.

Given by the conducted analysis, I conclude that it has been successful in confirming proving the hypothesis given in the beginning. We can say, that water really is a conflict factor in the region and its conflict potential tends to become even stronger in the future. It is important to say that although one can see the main cause of trouble in the scarcity of water resources, it is not right. Countries in the region have enough water theoretically, so the physical scarcity of water is not affecting this region. However, perceived or structural scarcity is the core problem as the distribution and allocation of water is poorly managed, facilities are outdated, and thus large amounts of water do not reach its destination. This mismanagement emerged during the Soviet era and still stays alive in these states. It is mainly connected with high dependency on agriculture in the downstream countries, which are tremendously dependent on waters coming outside of their territory. In order to prevent conflict situation, countries should gradually diversify their economies.

Moreover, the problem is escalated by different power of the downstream and upstream states and nowadays the upstream countries are believed to take measure to even more disadvantage the downstream ones. Relations between states are not good, which is also not helping the situation. There are no other available water resources in the region other than the two main rivers, Syr Darya and Amu Darya, and thus the dependency makes water even more conflictual. Great levels of pollution, salinization and degradation of water sources are also factors troubling the regional water system. Furthermore, it is believed, that climate change will have an impact on the region and it can make the issue even worse in the future, due to unpredictability of the weather, more frequent droughts, higher average temperatures and thus increased demand for water.

There have been several water related disputes in the region before, and now the possibility of conflict is even higher due to plans by the upstream countries. These new dams would ensure energy flow for the upstream countries but would severely damage water flow into the downstream countries. If Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will continue in these projects a threat of conflicts is certainly there. Incidents of diverting the water flow were present also in the past, but these projects could change the whole water situation in the region. The potential for conflict is even higher as the countries are not on good terms and thus it is hard to negotiate and make new, efficient and reasonable deals. The whole international community needs to take this threat seriously and respond to it, before it will be too late. New agreements, which will be adhered to, more negotiations, which could be facilitated by international actors, and leading to further cooperation and stronger relationships between the states are the key in solving the situation for good and prevent conflicts despite some unfavourable geographical conditions in the region.

Enjoy!

2) Transboundary Hydro-Governance: From Conflict to Shared Management by  
Em. Prof. Jacques Ganoulis and J. Fried.

Here is the blurb from the emailI received.

Dear Colleague,

It is my pleasure that I would like to inform you about the new book publication of Em. Prof. Jacques Ganoulis, UNESCO/INWEB Coordinator, entitled: 

Transboundary Hydro-Governance:
From Conflict to Shared Management,
Springer, July 2018 

It is co-authored with Prof. J. Fried, University of California at Irvine and
 resumes many years of experience on Water Resources Management of the two authors, who have worked in various international institutions, like UNESCO, GEF, UNEP and at the European Commission.

The book reports results of research on transboundary water management, water diplomacy and conflict resolution, and more particularly on Water Governance and how to bridge the gap between science and political decision-making, based on Prof. Ganoulis expertise during the last 3 years, as State Secretary for Water at the Ministry of Environment and Energy, Athens, Greece.

Dr. Ch. Skoulikaris

UNESCO/INWEB Secretary

Enjoy!

"Bad teachers and dying behavioral disciplines caution against using teaching evaluation techniques developed by dying behavioral disciplines." - @ass_deans

Central Asia Water Papers: 1) 'Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin'; 2) 'A Time Bomb in Central Asia: WATER'

A couple more Central Asia water papers. I'm getting closer to the present; these are from 2013 and 2014, respectively.

1) Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin  by Polina Lemkova.

Download Current_Problems_of_Water_Supply_and_Usage

Abstract
The paper focuses on analysis of Central Asian hydro-energetic system and water usage in Tian Shan region. Tian Shan system is an important water resource in Central Asia: river waters are intensely taken for hydropower energy, urban systems, irrigation. But geopolitics in Tian Shan is difficult: it crosses five densely populated countries. The problem consists in water delivery between countries located in the highlands with excellent water supply (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and those located invalleys with water shortage (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan). The water use causes debates among these countries. Besides, global warming causes water deficit, which adds difficulties to hydro-energetics. A multidisciplinary analysis was performed in the article: water supply in Tian Shan, spatial distribution of hydro energetic resources and effects of climate impact were analyzed.

 

2) A Time Bomb in Central Asia: WATER by Dursun Yildiz, Cuma Çakmak, Nuri Yildirim and Ediz Ekinci (published by the Hydropolitics Academy, Ankara, Turkey, September 2014)

Download A_Time_Bomb_in_Central_Asia_WATER

Foreword

Water connects us in the most fundamental way. We cannot survive without it. Moreover, water is intrinsically linked to the most immediate challenges we face today, including food security, health, climate change, economic growth, and poverty reduction.

 

Water problems in Asia today are severe one out of five people (700 million) does not have access to safe drinking water and half of the region’s population (1.8 billion people) lacks access to basic sanitation.As population growth and urbanization rates in the region rise, the stress on Asia’s water resources is rapidly intensifying. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the situation. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by 2050, more than one billion people in Asia alone is projected to sustain negative impacts on water resources as a result of climate change .Experts estimate that reduced access to fresh water will lead to a range of consequences including impaired food production, the loss of livelihood security, large-scale migration within and across borders, and increased geopolitical tensions and instabilities.Over time, these effects will have a profound impact on security throughout the region.

 

 

Introduction

Central Asia's strategic waters Seyhun (Syr Darya) and the Ceyhan River (Amu Darya) had low potential to cause problems in the USSR era for having been managed by decisions from Moscow and through central planning. However, the situation has changed after the collapse of the USSR. One of the most important issues after the independence of the countries of Turkish World of Central Asia was how to maintain hydropower dams in the upstream and the irrigation system in the downstream which were remainders of the USSR era. Now the interests of the countries were to come forward. How would international water management in Central Asia be made in these changing conditions. The answer to this problem was directly related to the region's future.

 
Under the new conditions, operation of water structures as well as new dams which upstream countries planned to or even stepped up to construct were starting to cause tensions in the region. Water resources were being seen as national natural resources rather than collective ones. Water in Central Asia began to be politicized

 

This has resulted in an approach to water resources in the region in terms of either protection or defense of national interests. Thus, water issues have started to be seen as an element threatening regional security. For instance, in February 2009, President of Uzbekistan, Karimov, stated before the Council of Ministers that the nation's water resources was under threat and they had to protect the rights of future generations of Uzbeks.

 

The European Union in 2008 announced that water management in Central Asia was the most sensitive environmental issue and may develop as a serious security threat in the medium term in the entire region in the event that it was not treated accordingly.

 

Given the current situation of strategic waters of the Aral Sea basin, two categories of countries emerge. The first group being upstream countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan which rather use water for the purpose of producing hydropower, not consuming but releasing it to the riverbed once again. The other group consisting Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan consume water mostly for irrigation bringing about less water to reach the Aral Sea.

Enjoy!

"Be the head of a headwater rather than being the head of heads." - Kyrgyz proverb (from #2)