WaterWired

Video: Youth and Water in Central Asia! WaterCafe 23 October: Blue Peace Index on Colorado River

1) Water and Peace 2.0 - Youth Outlook 2019

This video won the main prize in the Imagine Blue Peace competition sponsored by the Geneva Water Hub and the World Youth Parliament for Water! Here is the news release.

Three of our OSU Central Asian MS students Bota Sharipova (Kazakhstan), Nataliya Chemayeva (Turkmenistan), and Nargiza Osmonova (Kyrgyzstan) were intimately involved in the video's creation.

Title: Imagine Blue Peace Finalist: “Water and Peace 2.0 Youth Outlook, 2019”

Descriptive Teaser: Vision of young water specialists on water and peace using the case of Central Asia. Made by Bota Sharipova (WYPW), Nataliya Chemayeva (WYPW), Nargiza Osmonova (WYPW), Mirsaid Uzakov (WYPW), Tim Nolden (WYN) and Farhad Safi (CAY4W), 2019. The themes covered in the video include: social inclusion & stakeholder participation; transboundary river basins & aquifers, water, peace, and youth.

Thank you so much for your overall support, as always!

Here is a link to the video.

2) WaterCafe at Oregon State University on 23 October

Join WaterCafe on 23 October to assess how US states are managing the water resources of Colorado River!

WaterCafe will be conducted at Oregon State University on 23 October 2019 from 3 to 5 pm (Strand Agricultural Hall 363) to calculate the Blue Peace Index (BPI) of the Colorado River Basin. During two hours participants - Masters and PhD students from OSU - will work to assess management of shared water resources in 7 states of the USA accross five pillars: 1) policy & legal frameworks; 2) institutional arrangements and participation,  3) water management instruments, infrastructure and financing; and 2) cooperation. After deriving results of the assessment willing participants will be invited to provide video feedback on the indices which would be shared with creators and authors of the Index.

There will be a imited number of participants – save your space by registering here. 

More information about Blue Peace Index and the original methodology here. 

The event is organized jointly by the World Youth Parliament for Water (WYPW) and OSU Hydrophiles.

NB: Participants are kindly asked to come with their own laptops. Light snacks will be provided during the event.

Flyer:

Download Blue-Peace-flyer-final

Enjoy!

“Wars are poor chisels for carving out peaceful tomorrows.” – Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Article in Harvard International Review: 'High and Dry - Central Asia’s Failure to Avert the Impending Water Crisis'

This 2017 article by Alisher Ilkmanov appeared in the Harvard International Review: 'High and Dry - Central Asia’s Failure to Avert the Impending Water Crisis'.

The graphic is from here.

Download High_and_Dry_Central_Asias_Failure_to_Avert

Introduction
In 2016, the World Resources Institute published a map called Water Stress by Country, comparing the shortages of fresh water experienced by countries across the world. This map clearly indicates the Mongolian-Arabian belt of high water stress, which includes Central Asia, along with Mongolia, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and the Arabian Peninsula. As a result of a number of factors, it can be argued that these countries belong to a zone of coming crisis, a lack of fresh water.

A study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, operating under the auspices of the United Nations, shows that since the beginning of the twentieth century the overall temperature in the region has increased by 1-2 percent, and one can expect further raising by 2-4 percent in the coming decades. According to the World Bank, this trend may result in a 11 percent fall in the region’s GDP in the next 20 years.

Central Asia’s main sources of water resources are two major river basins, the Amudarya and Syrdarya, both of which are tributaries of the Aral Sea, which used to be one of the world largest lakes. According to forecasts, due to the expected melting of mountain glaciers, the river runoff in the Amudarya river basin will be reduced by 30 percent, compared with the average annual runoff over the past 10 years. This will lead to increased spring runoff, causing more flooding, as well as dramatically reduced water availability in the summer, causing more droughts. There is no need to say that this trend will most severely affect agriculture, a dominant sector of the economy in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as southern Kazakhstan.

Are countries in the region prepared to face this scenario? Do all of them have adequate awareness of this issue? At the very least, there are no signs of discussions in the public sphere going on in the region on this subject.

The coming shortage of fresh water is only part of the broader set of water scarcity problems in Central Asia. These problems also include a lack of irrigation water for agriculture, as well as the pollution of the Amudarya and Syrdarya by high content of salts and agrochemicals from irrigation runoff. As a result, we are witnessing a social and economic crisis in the regions located downstream from the two main rivers, as well as declining quality of life in those areas, as populations experience water shortages and are forced to consume water with high salt content.

Perhaps some of the spring floods could be stored by implementing Managed Aquifer Recharge, similar to what Maria Gibson and I have been doing in the Yakima Valley in Washington State, USA.The hazard could be reduced and the water stored underground for later use. Here is a Texas case study.

Cutting to the chase...

Conclusion
As we can see, the solution to the problem of conservation and rational use of water resources requires a complex set of measures at the national and regional levels, and most importantly, the development of robust institutions. If the formation of institutions does not work at the national level, it is unlikely that we will see the emergence of capable institutions on a regional scale. It seems that regional governments and local populations are not prepared to meet the challenge and prevent an impending water crisis. As for international organizations, agencies, and donors, although they want to help countries in Central Asia solve these problems, they are not able to replace these governments and do the work that these governments are supposed to do themselves.

Given the current state of affairs, I remain quite skeptical about the possibility of solving key problems of a looming water shortage in the region. Perhaps, an old saying better reflects what we can expect in observable future: “The worse the better.” Until the people of Central Asia begin experiencing real hardships due to lack of water, they are unlikely to confront the government with a strong political will and desire for change.

Enjoy!

“The worse the better.” - Alisher Ilkmanov

Transboundary Twofer! 1) Report: Water as a Potential Conflict Factor in Central Asia; 2) Book: Transboundary Hydro-Governance

1) Water as a Potential Conflict Factor in Central Asia is a 2015 paper by Eva Lackovičová, a student at Prague's University of Economics.  

Download Water_As_A_Potential_Conflict_Factor

Introduction
Water belongs to the most important resources and for human life it is a need and a must. However, even in the 21st century, there are still countries and their citizens which lack water resources for production, consumption, clean drinking water for everyday use. International organizations, such as the UN, try hard to secure this right to all the people in the world and to make water accepted as a public good for the benefit of all. Although they are still not fully successful, the whole international community must continue in these actions. Moreover, the problem is that in some parts of the world, water can become a cause of conflicts and disputes. It can happen for a number of reasons, which will be described later in the paper. In my paper, I decided to take a closer look at the region of Central Asia, because I believe, that this region has a huge potential for future development and water is a crucial element in all the relations in the region for a long time. I have decided to make a hypothesis saying that water is a conflict factor in the region of Central Asia and can lead to conflicts in the future.

In the first chapter, I will define the region from geographical and socio-economic point of view. In order to be able to analyse the region objectively, we need to know these information. Geographical position of the countries in the region determines the climate conditions which consequently affect countries´ relation to water and the whole water situation in the region. Historical and socio-economic background is important for us in order to understand the situation and trace back the origins of the water problem. Furthermore, as all the countries in this region were part of the USSR, it is also an important part of their history and it still has its legacy there. Thus, I will look at the water management during the Soviet times, as well as after the dissolution.

The second chapter provides a theoretical background for this topic, as I try to define some of the important approaches and opinions on the issue of potential water conflicts and water scarcity. The number of researchers and scholars who are dealing with this topic is still increasing as it becomes a more pressing issue. Nevertheless, I tried to provide readers with number of authors, which I find crucial for this analysis and I find their arguments most suitable for the topic. Although, I believe that there are also other works of other authors, which are also relevant, it is not possible to cover all of them. One of the best known authors dealing with water related issues and conflicts is Mr. Peter Gleick and after reviewing his work, I have decided that his approach will provide a cornerstone for the analysis of conflict factors.

Conclusion
In the previous three chapters, I have tried to find out whether water is a potential conflict factor in the region of Central Asia and if it is likely to become one in the future. In the introduction, I have set up a hypothesis that it is such, and it can lead to conflicts in the future. In order to be able to give an answer statement for this hypothesis, I gathered information from many sources about geographical, socio-economic realities and water management structures during the Soviet period and after. To support the analysis with relevant arguments and approaches, I have researched works of scholars dealing with this issue as well as reports and analysis of mostly foreign authors. Since I found one approach talking directly about water related issues and conflict factors of water and water systems, I have decided to take it as a main approach to test in the given region. Then, I tried to show that there is a conflict potential in the region related to water.

Given by the conducted analysis, I conclude that it has been successful in confirming proving the hypothesis given in the beginning. We can say, that water really is a conflict factor in the region and its conflict potential tends to become even stronger in the future. It is important to say that although one can see the main cause of trouble in the scarcity of water resources, it is not right. Countries in the region have enough water theoretically, so the physical scarcity of water is not affecting this region. However, perceived or structural scarcity is the core problem as the distribution and allocation of water is poorly managed, facilities are outdated, and thus large amounts of water do not reach its destination. This mismanagement emerged during the Soviet era and still stays alive in these states. It is mainly connected with high dependency on agriculture in the downstream countries, which are tremendously dependent on waters coming outside of their territory. In order to prevent conflict situation, countries should gradually diversify their economies.

Moreover, the problem is escalated by different power of the downstream and upstream states and nowadays the upstream countries are believed to take measure to even more disadvantage the downstream ones. Relations between states are not good, which is also not helping the situation. There are no other available water resources in the region other than the two main rivers, Syr Darya and Amu Darya, and thus the dependency makes water even more conflictual. Great levels of pollution, salinization and degradation of water sources are also factors troubling the regional water system. Furthermore, it is believed, that climate change will have an impact on the region and it can make the issue even worse in the future, due to unpredictability of the weather, more frequent droughts, higher average temperatures and thus increased demand for water.

There have been several water related disputes in the region before, and now the possibility of conflict is even higher due to plans by the upstream countries. These new dams would ensure energy flow for the upstream countries but would severely damage water flow into the downstream countries. If Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will continue in these projects a threat of conflicts is certainly there. Incidents of diverting the water flow were present also in the past, but these projects could change the whole water situation in the region. The potential for conflict is even higher as the countries are not on good terms and thus it is hard to negotiate and make new, efficient and reasonable deals. The whole international community needs to take this threat seriously and respond to it, before it will be too late. New agreements, which will be adhered to, more negotiations, which could be facilitated by international actors, and leading to further cooperation and stronger relationships between the states are the key in solving the situation for good and prevent conflicts despite some unfavourable geographical conditions in the region.

Enjoy!

2) Transboundary Hydro-Governance: From Conflict to Shared Management by  
Em. Prof. Jacques Ganoulis and J. Fried.

Here is the blurb from the emailI received.

Dear Colleague,

It is my pleasure that I would like to inform you about the new book publication of Em. Prof. Jacques Ganoulis, UNESCO/INWEB Coordinator, entitled: 

Transboundary Hydro-Governance:
From Conflict to Shared Management,
Springer, July 2018 

It is co-authored with Prof. J. Fried, University of California at Irvine and
 resumes many years of experience on Water Resources Management of the two authors, who have worked in various international institutions, like UNESCO, GEF, UNEP and at the European Commission.

The book reports results of research on transboundary water management, water diplomacy and conflict resolution, and more particularly on Water Governance and how to bridge the gap between science and political decision-making, based on Prof. Ganoulis expertise during the last 3 years, as State Secretary for Water at the Ministry of Environment and Energy, Athens, Greece.

Dr. Ch. Skoulikaris

UNESCO/INWEB Secretary

Enjoy!

"Bad teachers and dying behavioral disciplines caution against using teaching evaluation techniques developed by dying behavioral disciplines." - @ass_deans

Central Asia Water Papers: 1) 'Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin'; 2) 'A Time Bomb in Central Asia: WATER'

A couple more Central Asia water papers. I'm getting closer to the present; these are from 2013 and 2014, respectively.

1) Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin  by Polina Lemkova.

Download Current_Problems_of_Water_Supply_and_Usage

Abstract
The paper focuses on analysis of Central Asian hydro-energetic system and water usage in Tian Shan region. Tian Shan system is an important water resource in Central Asia: river waters are intensely taken for hydropower energy, urban systems, irrigation. But geopolitics in Tian Shan is difficult: it crosses five densely populated countries. The problem consists in water delivery between countries located in the highlands with excellent water supply (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and those located invalleys with water shortage (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan). The water use causes debates among these countries. Besides, global warming causes water deficit, which adds difficulties to hydro-energetics. A multidisciplinary analysis was performed in the article: water supply in Tian Shan, spatial distribution of hydro energetic resources and effects of climate impact were analyzed.

 

2) A Time Bomb in Central Asia: WATER by Dursun Yildiz, Cuma Çakmak, Nuri Yildirim and Ediz Ekinci (published by the Hydropolitics Academy, Ankara, Turkey, September 2014)

Download A_Time_Bomb_in_Central_Asia_WATER

Foreword

Water connects us in the most fundamental way. We cannot survive without it. Moreover, water is intrinsically linked to the most immediate challenges we face today, including food security, health, climate change, economic growth, and poverty reduction.

 

Water problems in Asia today are severe one out of five people (700 million) does not have access to safe drinking water and half of the region’s population (1.8 billion people) lacks access to basic sanitation.As population growth and urbanization rates in the region rise, the stress on Asia’s water resources is rapidly intensifying. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the situation. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by 2050, more than one billion people in Asia alone is projected to sustain negative impacts on water resources as a result of climate change .Experts estimate that reduced access to fresh water will lead to a range of consequences including impaired food production, the loss of livelihood security, large-scale migration within and across borders, and increased geopolitical tensions and instabilities.Over time, these effects will have a profound impact on security throughout the region.

 

 

Introduction

Central Asia's strategic waters Seyhun (Syr Darya) and the Ceyhan River (Amu Darya) had low potential to cause problems in the USSR era for having been managed by decisions from Moscow and through central planning. However, the situation has changed after the collapse of the USSR. One of the most important issues after the independence of the countries of Turkish World of Central Asia was how to maintain hydropower dams in the upstream and the irrigation system in the downstream which were remainders of the USSR era. Now the interests of the countries were to come forward. How would international water management in Central Asia be made in these changing conditions. The answer to this problem was directly related to the region's future.

 
Under the new conditions, operation of water structures as well as new dams which upstream countries planned to or even stepped up to construct were starting to cause tensions in the region. Water resources were being seen as national natural resources rather than collective ones. Water in Central Asia began to be politicized

 

This has resulted in an approach to water resources in the region in terms of either protection or defense of national interests. Thus, water issues have started to be seen as an element threatening regional security. For instance, in February 2009, President of Uzbekistan, Karimov, stated before the Council of Ministers that the nation's water resources was under threat and they had to protect the rights of future generations of Uzbeks.

 

The European Union in 2008 announced that water management in Central Asia was the most sensitive environmental issue and may develop as a serious security threat in the medium term in the entire region in the event that it was not treated accordingly.

 

Given the current situation of strategic waters of the Aral Sea basin, two categories of countries emerge. The first group being upstream countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan which rather use water for the purpose of producing hydropower, not consuming but releasing it to the riverbed once again. The other group consisting Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan consume water mostly for irrigation bringing about less water to reach the Aral Sea.

Enjoy!

"Be the head of a headwater rather than being the head of heads." - Kyrgyz proverb (from #2)

Central Asia Water Smorgasbord: Four 2008-2010 Publications for Your Reading Pleasure!

Here are four publications (two papers and two collections) dealing with Central Asia water issues that have come my way in the past two weeks. Each is about 10 years old - dating from the 2008 - 2010 period. All the graphics and the quote at the bottom are from publication (1). 

1) Water – A Source of Conflict or Cooperation in Central Asia by Yana Grevtseva

This paper is a Master's project by Yana Grevtseva when she was a student at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. 

Download Water_A_Source_of_Conflict_or_Cooperation

Abstract
The issue of water is emerging as one of the most talked about
topics in contemporary international relations with resource
security recently gaining prominence within ‘high politics’. This is
especially so in Central Asia where the countries of the region
have been faced with a serious depletion of water in the Aral Sea
Basin. As a result, several international and regional initiatives
have been developed by newly established institutions seeking to
minimise the risk of water related competition amongst regional
states. Scholars have tended to argue against the ‘water wars’
hypothesis, believing that market forces and institutions will
conspire to prevent the eruption of conflict. However, the case of
Central Asia shows that the market will also continue to drive the
region’s state sponsored cotton-economy as well as
authoritarianism in an independent, state-centric Central Asia, all
of which portend growing tensions over rapidly diminishing water
supply. This paper will reflect on recent developments and offer a
theoretical framework that leads to the conclusion that the
potential for conflict resulting from water allocation disputes is
likely to increase.

2) Central Asian Waters: Social, Economic, Environmental and Governance Puzzle edited by M. M. Rahaman and O. Varis.

Download Central_Asian_Waters_Social_Economic_Environmental an

Foreword
It was in 1986 that we took a train from Helsinki to Moscow. Our plan was to travel around Central Asia and get acquainted with water management in that part of the USSR. One of our particular interests was to get a view on what was going on with the Aral Sea – there were some rumors and even news about the environmental disaster but a clear picture was missing at the international arena.

In Moscow, we were privileged to have meetings with distinguished Soviet water specialists such as Professors V. Voropayev and M. Khublaryan who were modest in describing what was going on in with the Aral Sea but the solution was clearly outspoken; the region needed large-scale water transfers from the Northern rivers, most preferably from Ob-Irtysh through Volga. Otherwise, there would be a massive catastrophe with millions of migrants away from the area.

The solutions became very different than planned those days of Perestroika. In fact, it seems that the solutions have by and large not really been found yet; the catastrophe remains. 

On our trip with a team that dominantly consisted of water engineering students – among them one of the two editors of this book, Olli Varis as a young postgraduate student – we had no way to the Aral Sea but saw and heard many things. The region was and is rich with ages-old wisdom and culture. It strived to modernize its economy with massive agricultural systems and other water-related means. Many things wentwell we heard but we also already knew that many went totally wrong too.

Looking back is easy of course but looking forward is far more difficult. Central Asia needs solutions and new insights to its development and for its water sector. We at the University tend to believe in an optimistic way that we must give all the means that we can for the young generation and they most probably will beable to make things better than what they are now. Such is the history of this book too.

In autumn 2007, we organized a course at Helsinki University of Technology on Global Water Issues, with a special topic on the Central Asian water problems. This course has, over the years, targeted various regions, from China to Middle East and North Africa. The course on Central Asia was quite productiveand nice, and as one of the consequences, to our positive surprise, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finlandasked for our willingness to take over the Finnish component of their co-operation with Global Water Partnership and Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia. We accepted this offer with great pleasure.

Along with the University’s mandate, we thought to propose the distinguished partners to organize a seminar in the region with the scope to involve young water professionals from Finland and from the region to deliberate the water challenges of Central Asia. The partners were fond of this idea and consequently, the seminar will take place in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in late November 2008 with a background document which is the book in hand.

I sincerely hope that this contribution is useful to the region’s water colleagues and will bring the attention of the young water professionals to this highly attractive region and to the region’s water challenges in a solution-seeking way.

Pertti Vakkilainen
Professor
Water Resources Management
Helsinki University of Technology

3) Water Resources Management in Central Asia: Regional and International Issues at Stake by U. Islamov, Anar Khamzayeva, F. Maksudov, D. Maksudova, Sulton Rahimov, Bektur Sakiev

Download Water_Resources_Management

Foreword
This publication presents the results of the workshop on Water resources management in Central Asia: regional and international issues at stake which was held at the CIDOB Foundation in Barcelona on 23 January 2009. It also presents the 4 background papers and the conclusions. The aim of the meeting, which took place within the framework of the Observatory on Central Asia (a joint initiative set up by the Royal Institute, Casa Asia and the CIDOB Foundation), was to examine the way in which water resources are managed in the Central Asia region, as well as to debate issues such as the prospects for comprehensive water management, the importance of the latter in terms of international security, and the impact on the development of the countries in the region. The workshop’s participants also analysed the role of international organisations in Central Asia, with a view to the future role that Spain could play during its EU presidency in 2010. The seminar’s participants included four experts from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, together with some 20 experts and scholars, all specialised in the Central Asia region.

CIDOB Foundation

Abstract
This publication came about as a product of the debate workshop “Managing water resources in Central Asia: regional and international issues at stake”, an academic meeting organised by the CIDOB Foundation, within the framework of the Observatory on Central Asia, which co-sponsored the event together with Casa Asia and the Royal Elcano Institute. The book includes research studies by four of its academic speakers, as well as the main conclusions reached and a few recommendations of great importance for national and international actors, as well as for the main international powers with interests in the region. This is a document of great value for anybody who is interested in the management of water resources and the dynamics of cooperation and conflict that are generated around such an activity, and area that is of key importance to understanding the past, present and future of relations between the Central Asian states in such crucial areas as water resources, energy and the damage done to the environment by climate change and pollution. The subject is developed as follows: firstly, through a general approach to the subject, given out by Anar Khamzayeva, a doctorate student at the LUISS Guido Carli University and ex-analyst at the Institute for World Economy and Politics (IWEP) of Kazakhstan, and who places attention on the need to create frameworks of cooperation between the different states in the region. Subsequently, Sulton Rahimov, ex-Chairman of the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC-IFAS) deals with the effects of climate change on Central Asia, focusing particularly on the degradation of the Aral Sea area. Farhod Maksudov, a researcher from the Uzbek Academy of Sciences and an environmental expert from the Office of the UNDP in Uzbekistan offers the reader an analytical article on a specific programme: the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) project, which was created with the aim of establishing comprehensive water management for sustainable development in the area. In the final study, Bektur Sakiev, from the organisation Foundation for Tolerance International of Kirguiztan, examines one particular practical case: the management of water in the strategic Ferghana valley. Finally, the publication includes a report from the workshop that brings together the main conclusions of the experts on Central Asia and a few recommendations, in order to turn the workshop and this publication into a document that is useful for anyone interested in the efficient management of resources and the dynamics that are generated around them when they are in short supply.

4) Pyrrhic Victory in the “Tournament of Shadows”:
Central Asia’s Quest for Water Security (1991–2009) by Samuel Chan

Download Pyrrhic_victory_in_the_Tournament

Abstract
Central Asia’s Soviet past continues to haunt the five successor sovereign states with water, a contentious issue. Although fundamental to survival and livelihood, regional cooperation over the precious resource remains a patchwork of short-term stop-loss agreements at best and an exercise in “frameworks without content” at worst. This article seeks to explain why this is so, based on a theoretical position derived from hydro-political discourse. The eclectic explanations include the hydro-hegemonic void created by the removal of Soviet authoritarianism; the securitization of the hydro-political complex in Central Asia; unilateral and bilateral substitutes for multilateral water resource cooperation; and the ineffectiveness of international law – all of which contribute to the impasse over water cooperation.

Enjoy!

"History is replete with examples of violent conflict over water." - Butts (1997) - (see footnote 1 in Yana Grevtseva's  paper)