WaterWired

Predicting a River's Flow: 'The Physics of River Prediction' by Sean Fleming & Hoshin Gupta

The current (July 2020, volume 73 issue 7) issue of Physics Today is features Predicting a River's Flow.

By the way, I might add that the magazine is offering free online access to its archives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Visit PT's website to see how to take advantage of this offer. Pretty generous of them.

Back to river physics. Sean W. Fleming, the first author (with Hoshin V. Gupta) on the article The Physics of River Prediction brought the issue to my attenetion and sent me a PDF of their paper which is a concise but wide-ranging treatment of the topic I found quite stimulating. It also conjured visions of my early years of  graduate school in hydrology and my dissertation that dealt in part with linear and nonlinear reservoirs...Still getting cited, BTW.  

Download Prediction_River_Flows__Fleming_PT_July2020  

The cover photo of a Hoover Dam intake tower is by Sean.

Here are the first few paragraphs:

Rivers support life and fuel civilization. They provide water for drinking, irrigate food crops, and help build everything from cars to computers. Their waters drive hydroelectric turbines that generate clean energy. Rivers have even supported nuclear physics developments that changed the course of a war: The hydroelectric complexes of the Columbia Basin Project and the Tennessee Valley Authority enabled energy-intensive uranium and plutonium refinement for the Manhattan Project.

Rivers have always been crucial transportation pathways. The exploration, settlement, and economic development of the Americas depended acutely on river navigation. The Danube serves as a trade route in Europe, much as it did for the Romans 2000 years ago, and today it carries commercial freight across the continent.

 

Rivers also provide homes for precious ecosystems. They house fisheries, facilitate recreation, and bring in tourism dollars. That’s not to mention their tremendous cultural value: American literature wouldn’t be the same without Mark Twain’s recollections of his experiences as a Mississippi riverboat pilot.

 

Rivers can also kill. Floods are the most devastating natural force in the US, and at times they have been architects of history. In 1948, the Columbia River flooded and wiped out the progressive Portland suburb of Vanport, Oregon. Fifteen people died, and the destruction permanently changed the area’s racial dynamics. The flood also motivated the US and Canada to negotiate the Columbia River Treaty, intended in part to support flood control efforts. Droughts are subtler than floods but are considered more damaging globally.

 

Although the water wars predicted in 1995 by then World Bank vice president Ismail Serageldin are unlikely to materialize, competition over scarce water resources has occasionally led to violence. For example, Israeli and Syrian forces skirmished in the mid 1960s over water resources in the Jordan River basin.

 

Predicting variability and long-term changes in river flows, like those shown in figure 1, is crucial for optimally managing water resources and sidestepping danger. Such hydrologic forecasts are made on a range of time scales and for many purposes. Flood prediction is done hours to days ahead of an event and is used to make emergency management decisions. Seasonal water supply forecasts are needed months in advance to inform the vast water and power management infrastructure in the mostly dry western US. For long-term assessment of the effects of land use and climate change, planning happens over decades or even generations. Successful prognostication depends on a cross-disciplinary set of quantitative modeling approaches.

 

 

One section really brought back memories of an approach we studied in the late Gene Simpson's Hydrology 280 class that was a quantitative introduction to hydrology. Was it ever!

Box 2 schooled me on something that wasn't around much when I was in grad school.

The last two paragraphs:

Several directions for future work are apparent. Predictive skill needs to improve in difficult environments like deserts, alpine watersheds, and dense cities. Renewed attention should be paid to complex systems science, a field that has attracted great interest in statistical mechanics, ecology, and sociophysics. River networks are a classic example of fractal geometry, and chaos theory limits weather’s predictability to an approximately two-week theoretical window. In general, neither of those modern mathematical concepts appears explicitly in river-prediction models; a complex systems approach could incorporate them.

Continuing to capitalize on the data revolution will drive progress in hydrology. Developing novel data types, discovering predictive climatic information, and exploring new analytical directions to support environmental monitoring and prediction all offer opportunities for growth. Substantial forward movement on those fronts will be crucial to managing rivers and water resources in an increasingly uncertain future.

About the authors. Sean Fleming is an applied R&D technical lead at the US Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service in Portland, Oregon, and an affiliate faculty member at Oregon State University in Corvallis and the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. Hoshin Gupta is a Regents’ professor in the department of hydrology and atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

My next cohort of physical hydrology students will get this to read.

A gem!

Enjoy!

"The deed is everything, the glory is naught." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

CRS Report: 'Forecasting Tropical Cyclones: Overview and Issues for Congress'

Eva Lipiec's CRS report (16 June 2020): Forecasting Tropical Cyclones: Overview and Issues for Congress.

Download CRS_Report_Forecasting_Tropical_Cyclones_Congress_16June2020

From the report (click on the graphics to enlarge them):

Timely tropical cyclone forecasts can provide early and accurate warnings to parts of the U.S. coastline vulnerable to tropical cyclone impacts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the federal agency responsible for tropical cyclone forecasts, including track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall forecasts. NOAA defines tropical cyclones as tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, and the agency makes tropical cyclone forecasts using data from multiple observational tools— satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, ships, radar, and buoys, among others.

Each year, NOAA releases outlooks for three ocean regions—Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and central Pacific. Although the outlooks typically cover all types of tropical cyclones, the agency uses the term “hurricane” in the outlook title. The north Atlantic and eastern Pacific outlooks include the predicted number of named storms (typically tropical storm strength or stronger), hurricanes, and major hurricanes. The central Pacific outlook forecasts the total number of tropical cyclones expected.

NOAA released its 2020 hurricane season outlooks for the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and central Pacific regions in May 2020. NOAA predicts an above-normal season in the Atlantic, with 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. (Some nonfederal entities have predicted a near-normal to above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.) In addition, the agency anticipates that the eastern and central Pacific regions will most likely experience a near-normal season. The forecast includes 11 to 18 named storms, 5 to 10 hurricanes, and 1 to 5 major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and between 2 and 6 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific. Recent hurricane seasons have included several major hurricanes—such as hurricanes Dorian in 2019 and Florence, Lane, Michael, and Olivia in 2018—which resulted in multiple deaths and billions of dollars of damage in the southeastern United States and Hawaii, among other places.

In 2017, Congress enacted the Weather Research and Forecasting Act (P.L. 115-25), which included provisions regarding hurricane forecasting and warnings. Members of Congress continue to be interested in the potential impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and the challenges in accurately forecasting certain aspects—such as intensity, storm surge, and precipitation—of tropical cyclones. Some Members also may consider potential impacts on tropical cyclone forecasting due to shifts in the NOAA’s and private sector’s roles in the weather enterprise. Some stakeholders advocate for retaining the current distribution of responsibilities; other stakeholders believe changes in responsibility are already occurring and should, in some cases, continue or expand. Members also may continue to consider the potential for interference from fifth-generation telecommunications (5G) technology on NOAA and other federal satellite sensors. For instance, some stakeholders have argued that interference could impact the quality of data used for hurricane forecasting, among other activities. Others have rejected interference claims altogether, among other views.

Here is the introductory paragraph for the 'Issues for Congress' section. Lots more information in the report...

Issues for Congress
Congress has considered and may continue to consider issues around federal activities related to tropical cyclone forecasting and impacts. Some issues, including the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones and forecasting certain aspects of these storms, are directly linked to federal tropical cyclone activities. Other issues, such as federal government interactions with the private sector weather enterprise and potential fifth-generation (5G) interference with satellite sensors, may affect the existing weather data structure, potentially leading to indirect impacts on federal tropical cyclone activities. 

This report has a wealth of information including graphics and tables. If this topic interests you, give it a good read.

Enjoy!

"A + B + C = Success if, A = Hard work, B = Hard play, C = Keeping your mouth shut."
- Albert Einstein

CRS InFocus Report: 'Wildfire Statistics'

Katie Hoover and Laura A. Hanson assembled this CRS InFocus report (9 June 2020): 'Wildfire Statistics'.

If you click on the title about that will take you to the online copy. 

Lots of graphics for a two-pager.

Download CRS_InFocus_Report_Wildfire_Statistics_9June2020

From the report:

Wildfire Statistics
Wildfires are unplanned and unwanted fires, including lightning-caused fires, unauthorized human-caused fires, and escaped prescribed fire projects. States are responsible for responding to wildfires that begin on nonfederal (state, local, and private) lands, except for lands protected by federal agencies under cooperative agreements. The federal government is responsible for responding to wildfires that begin on federal lands. The Forest Service (FS)—within the U.S. Department of Agriculture—carries out wildfire management and response across the 193 million acres of the National Forest System. The Department of the Interior (DOI) manages wildfire response for more than 400 million acres of national parks, wildlife refuges and preserves, other public lands, and Indian reservations. 

Wildfire statistics help to illustrate past U.S. wildfire activity. Nationwide data compiled by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) indicate that the number of annual wildfires is variable but has decreased slightly over the last 30 years and that the number of acres burned annually, while also variable, generally has increased (see Figure 1). Every year since 2000, an average of 71,300 wildfires burned an average of 6.9 million acres. This figure is more than double the average annual acreage burned in the 1990s (3.3 million acres), although a greater number of fires occurred annually in the 1990s (78,600 on average).

Over the past 10 years, there were an average of 64,100 wildfires annually and an average of 6.8 million acres burned annually. In 2019, 50,477 wildfires burned 4.7 million acres nationwide, below the annual average for both statistics. More than half of the acreage burned in 2019 was in Alaska (2.5 million acres), which was the only area that experienced significantly above-average wildfire activity for the year. The 2015 fire season was the largest on record, with 10.1 million acres burned (see Figure 2); more than half of these acres were in Alaska (5.1 million acres).

As of June 9, 2020, over 20,000 wildfires have burned nearly 560,000 acres this year.

Cutting to the chase...

Issues for Congress 
Issues for Congress include the strategies and resources used for wildfire management and the impact of wildfires on both the quality of life and the economy of communities surrounding wildfire activity. Congress also considers the total federal cost of wildfire management, including the cost of suppression operations, costs that vary annually and are difficult to predict. 

For more information, see CRS In Focus IF10732, Federal Assistance for Wildfire Response and Recovery. 

Haven't heard much about wildfires this fire season. I assume that the pandemic news has something to do with that. 

Enjoy!

"What do we live for, if it is not to make life less difficult for each other?" - George Eliot

CRS Insight Report: 'Dam Failure: Overview of Federal Programs and Resources'

Anna E. Normand, Diane P. Horn, Kelsi Bracmort and David M. Bearden assembled this 3-pager CRS Insight report (26 May 2020): 'Dam Failure: Overview of Federal Programs and Resources'

The PDF and text below may not show the hot links; the online version (click on the title above) does have them.  

Download CRS_Insight_Dam_Failure_26May2020

Introduction
On May 19, 2020, following several days of heavy rain, the Edenville Dam on the Tittabawasee River in Gladwin County, Michigan, failed and sent a large volume of water downstream that overtopped the Sanford Dam in Midland County. A local utility company owns both dams. Michigan evacuated approximately 10,000 downstream residents. Concerns were raised about the potential spread of environmental contamination from a Dow Chemical Company facility in Midland and an associated federal Superfund site, which are downstream of the dams. On May 21, 2020, President Trump approved Michigan’s emergency declaration and ordered Stafford Act federal assistance for responding to severe storms and flooding beginning on May 16.

This flood represents the first major test of the federal response to a weather-related emergency during the COVID-19 operating environment. Below is an overview of federal programs that may be applicable to nonfederal dam safety incidents. 

Dam Safety
The National Inventory of Dams (NID) lists more than 90,000 dams, of which 97% are owned by nonfederal entities. About 17% of NID-listed dams are classified as high hazard potential (i.e., the loss of at least one life is likely if the dam fails), including the Edenville and Sanford Dams, which were built nearly 100 years ago for hydropower and flood control. The NID lists 2,384 of the high hazard potential dams as poor or unsatisfactory. Stakeholders estimate the cost to rehabilitate high hazard potential nonfederal dams is approximately $20 billion.

Dam owners generally are responsible for dam safety. Selected states and federal programs may provide limited assistance. Every state (except Alabama) and Puerto Rico has established a dam safety regulatory program. The National Dam Safety Program (43 U.S.C. §467f), operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), provides support for state dam safety programs. In addition, FEMA’s High Hazard Dam Rehabilitation Grant Program (43 U.S.C. §467f-2) may provide limited funding assistance for eligible high hazard nonfederal dams.

 

The pictures below show the area - before and after the dam break - with the locations of the two dams on the Tittabawasee River. The Sanford Dam did not fail; the flood wave from th Edenville Dam overtopped it. The mud is obvious in the pictures below. More pictures and other information can be found on the NASA Earth Observatory site.

Very good overview.

Enjoy!

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'” - Isaac Asimov (tnx Eric Fitch)

WMO Bulletin 69:1 (2020): 'Climate & Water' - 70 Years of 'Count Every Drop, Every Drop Counts'

Tim Smith sent this to me - looks like a pretty interesting read.

Download WMO_Climate_and_Water_2020

Here is the blurb:

WMO celebrates its 70th Anniversary in 2020. Activities to mark the Organization milestone anniversary start on 23 March – the date the WMO Convention came into force in 1950. One year later, WMO became a United Nations specialized agency and, today, WMO Member States and Territories number 193. But the history of international cooperation in meteorology dates back much earlier than 1950.The International Meteorological Organization (IMO), the predecessor of WMO, originates from the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress decision to draft the rules and statutes of an international meteorological organization to facilitate the exchange of weather information across national borders. The 150th anniversary of that event will be celebrated with due pomp in 2023.

On 23 March, World Meteorological Day and World Water Day will be celebrated together for the first time. The Climate and Water theme is reflected in the slogan for the celebration: 'Count Every Drop, Every Drop Counts'. More information, as well as outreach materials, are available online at worldmetday. wmo.int. We invite the WMO Community to make use of all the website and materials in their celebrations.

This issue of the WMO Bulletin on 'Climate and Water' theme, underlines the importance of including water in climate policy discussions.The Geneva Water Hub, a Swiss initiative that promotes sound water management as an instrument for peace and a key WMO Hydrohub partner, highlights the evidence that water shortages have the potential to lead to political and social unrest. Water data is the basis of good water resource management and multi-hazard early warnings for water-related extreme events. Articles on WMO initiatives and projects –from HydroSOS, WMO Space-based observations, Flash Flood Guidance System to projects in Africa and the Americas – demonstrate the role of the Earth System Approach in addressing today’s global challenges.

To mark its 70th anniversary, WMO will be holding an exhibit of National Geographic photos from its World’s Water Towers and Highest Weather/Climate Stations series. The Weather, Climate, Water exhibit will run for 70 days until the WMO Executive Council, which has been postponed to autumn due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In parallel, the WMO Chronology of Weather Science online museum will run a social media slide show campaign. Readers are invited to join us on WMO social media channels to y through the history of weather research on the traces of the people and institutions that have supported the progress of Earth System Science. The experts will accompany you from the beginnings of weather research in the early 20th Century to the advent of the rst electronic computers and satellites then onward to the super computers that have revolutionized numerical weather prediction.

In addition, a series of special 70th anniversary publications are being produced in 2020 with inputs from leading scientists and experts around the globe.These publications are designed to be both retrospective and forward-looking.They will re ect on both the important historic milestones of the Organization, including its contributions to meteorology around the world, as well as anticipated transformations and innovations as we enter a new decade and beyond. In Origin, Impact and Aftermath of WMO Resolution 40, the rst in the series released in January, former WMO President (1995–2003) John W. Zillman shares his rich memories of that crucial period of WMO history. Interestingly, the Eighteenth Session of the World Meteorological Congress in June 2019, established a task to review WMO data policies and practices, including those of Resolution 40, and called for WMO to convene a global Data Conference in 2020. In view of these developments, the historical review of the WMO data policies is timely and useful.

WMO has facilitated seventy-years of progress in weather, climate and water.The work of the WMO community has impacted the lives of countless millions at home, work and play. Building on the success of its rst seventy years, WMO and its partners in all sectors will continue to work together to secure a better future for mankind and our planet.

Petteri Taalas
Secretary-General
World Meteorological Organization 

The ToC (click on the graphics to enlarge them):

Enjoy!

"Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get." - Mark Twain