WaterWired

G. Tracy Mehan III Review: 'Apocalypse Never. Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All'

It has been a while since I published a review by G. Tracy Mehan III, a frequent contributor to WaterWired, executive director for government affairs at the American Water Works Association and adjunct professor at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University. He writes great book reviews (and other things) so when he sends me something I post it. This review of Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All by Michael Shellenberger will be published in the November/December 2020 issue of the The Environmental Forum. I am guessing that this review might generate more controversy than most I post. But that is fine.

Download Apocalypse Never Review

Here are the first few paragraphs of his review:

A recent front-page headline in the New York Times stated, “Disastrous Wave of Climate Events Slams California. Scientists Fear Fires Are Just the Start.” Journalists Thomas Fuller and Christopher Flavelle, report that “multiple mega fires [are] burning more than three million acres.” They continue, “If climate change was a somewhat abstract notion a decade ago, it is all too real for Californians.”

These are certainly disastrous events; but Michael Shellenberger, author of Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All, demurs as to any linkage between the catastrophic fires in the Golden State and a changing climate. Actually, he rejects the notion entirely.

Shellenberger cites Jon Keeley, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist in California who has researched the topic for forty years: “We’ve looked at the history of climate and fire throughout the whole state, and through much of the state, particularly the western half of the state, we don’t see any relationship between past climates and the amount of the area burned in any given year.” Keeley and other colleagues modeled 37 different regions in the United States and found that “humans may not only influence fire regime but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effects of climate.” Indeed, the only statistically significant factors for the frequency and severity of fires, on an annual basis, were population and proximity to deve

Okay, now let's cut to the chase...

Shellenberger discounts a climate apocalypse, but supports nuclear as the primary solution for reconciling economic growth with environmental protection. Many environmentalists envision an apocalypse but discount nuclear energy. It is nothing if not an ironic turn of events.

Shellenberger and his colleagues started organizing pronuclear demonstrations in 30 cities around the world in 2019. Evidently, the cry of “Standup for Nuclear” is resonating in Germany. He was even invited to testify before Congress. Maybe nuclear power is nota lost cause. It should get a second look from the body politic.

Don't forget to read the material I left out. All good.

Excellent - enjoy!

“Never let anyone drive you crazy; it is nearby anyway and the walk is good for you.” - The Cheshire Cat

More Sharon B. Megdal Reflections: On Wicked Water Problems

Dr. Sharon B. Megdal, Director of the University of Arizona's Water Resources Research Center and a friend and colleague, published this piece earlier this month and I am repeating here.

She also asked if the Water Buffalo symbol should be retired and would like your opinion by 24 August. What are we talking about? Go here,  

Download Reflections-wicked-water-problems_August 2020

Hare is Sharon's piece:

Although my spring-summer sabbatical lecture tour did not take place as planned due to COVID-19, I did deliver more than a dozen lectures and participated in several programs and interviews. My topic of wicked water problems was the most requested and one on which I will continue to focus. Not only does this topic afford me an opportunity to explore significant water challenges at varying geographic and geopolitical scales, it enables me to focus on the process for forging pathways to addressing them.

I begin my discussion of wicked water problems by citing Lisa Beutler’s excellent 2016 article, which was based on her keynote lecture at the Water Resource Research Center’s 2016 annual conference. I encourage all to read her concise exposition. These quotations are particularly salient. “Lately, more and more water problems seemingly defy standard solutions. This typically occurs for four reasons: incomplete or contradictory knowledge, the number of people and opinions involved, the large economic burden, and the interconnected nature of these problems with other problems.” Beutler points out that the necessary collaborations must involve more than water managers. She adds that “[i]nterdisciplinary collaboration that captures a broader knowledge of science, economics, statistics, technology, psychology, politics, and more is required…” to mitigate the negative consequences of wicked water problems. A key characteristic of wicked water problems, therefore, is that they are mitigated rather than solved, meaning that finding a pathway is the goal rather than trying to identify an ultimate solution. While partial or short-term solutions are implemented, the work continues.

(Click on the graphic to enlarge it)

Before fleshing out some examples, which I do not have space to do so in this essay, I point out the importance of context to analysis of wicked water problems. I often show a slide listing several of the factors that determine “on-the-ground” water policy and management. Among these are laws, regulations, and policies. The legal and institutional framework, including the degree to which decision-making is centralized, will be region-specific. Thus, maps always help clarify the geographic and geopolitical context for water issues of any kind, especially those that span

shared borders. In recent lectures, I have discussed four examples from the Colorado River Basin: overcommitment of groundwater in the Pinal Active Management Area; shortage of Colorado River flows relative to demands within Arizona and across the basin; limited consideration of water for natural systems; and the Navajo Nation’s inadequate water infrastructure, which has been spotlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional examples of wicked problems I mention involve water in the Middle East and include Lower Jordan River flows and the Dead Sea, water and wastewater services, and water scarcity, particularly in Jordan. While many more wicked water problems can be identified – and I ask listeners to think about what water problems they would identify as wicked – these examples enable me to discuss factors that contribute to mitigating them.

Process is very important to the search for pathways to solutions, which are often common across the regions I discuss. Solutions include conservation, augmentation, reuse, water transactions, and other actions at individual, community, and regional levels. Partnerships are critical to developing information collaboratively so that the parties can be “on the same page”. Whether within states and regions, across states, or across national boundaries, functioning cooperative mechanisms are critical. I emphasize the word “functioning” because it is not enough to have cooperative mechanisms on paper. Effective partnerships are built on respect and trust. Trust depends on mutually respectful, positive collaborative experiences. Stakeholder involvement is key. We are definitely seeing more inclusive processes, yet there is often room for improvement. Though live streaming of meetings had been increasing before the COVID-19 pandemic, since the demise of in-person meetings, meeting virtually has become the norm. Interestingly, this situation has enhanced participation of stakeholders who may not be officially “at the table” or able to travel long distances to in-person meetings. Good communication of all kinds is imperative to identifying and understanding the potential of alternative actions that contribute to mitigating wicked water problems. Because there are no quick fixes, both patience and persistence are necessary when working on complex matters over long periods of time.

For many years, I personally have had the opportunity to share lessons learned – both good and sometimes not-so-good – across different geographic and sociocultural communities. I have organized sessions for cross-regional learning and sharing, including but not limited to the 2009 Arizona-Israeli-Palestinian Water Management and Policy workshop in Tucson, the 2016 Middle East visit of the International Boundary and Water Commission commissioners, the 2017 Tel Aviv joint American Water Resources Association – Tel Aviv University conference on wicked water problems, and the 2019 Tel Aviv conference panel on implementing technologies across borders. All of these events are chronicled in previous Public Policy Columns and Reflections. During the 2019 panel, I asked panelists: What are the most important variables or factors that contribute to collaborating on implementing technologies across borders? Very high on their lists were functioning relationships. Several noted that being able to get to know your partners through sitting down together for meals fosters the friendships and relationships that can facilitate the work required to forge formal agreements. There can be peaks and lows. Identifying win-win opportunities can be difficult, and when working with neighbors of different cultures and languages, good communication, sincerity, and leadership are essential.

In her article, Lisa Beutler states, “Managing wicked problems is a new kind of work. It requires changing the questions, managing uncertainty, and creating resilience. It does not solve existing problems but instead drives to a desired future state.” Technology and economics are determinants of pathways to solutions, as are processes for working with and through stakeholders. Efforts to educate at all levels will contribute to identifying and evaluating options. Good work is continuing. But my recent webinar lectures on wicked water problems (see, for example, my May 2020 WRRC webinar) ended with this question, which is reflective of the COVID-19 times in which we live: When will we be able to meet and eat with our partners?

Last month Sharon gave an AWRA webinar: Developing Pathways to Solutions to Wicked Water Problems. Click here to access this recording. Here is the PDF of that PPT: 

Download Megdal_AWRA_WIckedWaterProblems_15July2020

Good stuff!

Enjoy!

"It's so much darker when a light goes out than it would have been if it had never shone." - John Steinbeck

CRS Report: 'U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Annual Appropriations Process and Issues for Congress'

From Anna E. Normand and Nicole T. Carter comes this 21 April 2020 CRS report: 'U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: Annual Appropriations Process and Issues for Congress'.

Click on the graphics to enlarge them.

Download CRS_Rpt_USACE_Ann_App_Prcocess_Issues_Con_21Apr2020

Summary
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is an agency within the Department of Defense with both military and civil works responsibilities. The agency’s civil works activities consist largely of the planning, construction, and operation of water resource projects to maintain navigable channels, reduce the risk of flood and storm damage, and restore aquatic ecosystems. Congress directs USACE’s civil works activities through authorization legislation, annual and supplemental appropriations, and oversight.

Unlike federal funding for highways and municipal water infrastructure, the majority of federal funds provided to USACE are not distributed by formula to states or through competitive grant programs. Instead, USACE generally is directly engaged in the planning and construction of projects. The majority of the agency’s appropriations are used to perform work on geographically specific studies and congressionally authorized projects. Between FY2010 and FY2020, USACE discretionary appropriations, typically funded through Title I of annual Energy and Water Development appropriations acts, have ranged from $4.72 billion in FY2013 to $7.65 billion in FY2020. Congress also has provided USACE with emergency supplemental appropriations, most often as part of flood response and recovery efforts (see CRS In Focus IF11435, Supplemental Appropriations for Army Corps Flood Response and Recovery, for more information).

USACE’s annual appropriations process generally involves three major milestones: the President’s budget request, congressional deliberation and enactment of appropriations, and Administration development of a USACE work plan. Each of the milestones is accompanied by various documents, such as USACE budget justifications, congressional conference reports, and USACE work plans.

The process begins with the release of the President’s budget request, typically in early February. The request’s appendix includes funding levels for different USACE accounts (e.g., Investigations, Construction, Operation and Maintenance). USACE also releases more detailed documents (i.e., press book, budget justifications) providing information on the projects that the request would fund. Congress may consider the President’s budget request, stakeholder interests, and other factors when creating an annual Energy and Water Development appropriations bill and its USACE civil works title. In reports accompanying appropriations bills, Congress provides direction to USACE on how to allocate enacted appropriations to various USACE activities and types of projects. In the months following enactment, the Administration develops a work plan that adheres to congressional direction regarding the priorities for the funding provided above the requested amount (e.g., $2.7 billion for 26 categories of USACE activities in FY2020) and the number of new starts (e.g., six new studies and six new construction projects using FY2020 appropriations).

Some USACE-related topics repeatedly arise in congressional appropriations deliberations For example, Congress often considers how to address the increasing maintenance needs of USACE’s aging infrastructure, stakeholder demand for USACE projects, and the number of finalized project studies awaiting construction. Issues for Congress also may include the distribution of appropriations (e.g., activity type, new starts, and geographic distribution) and the level of discretion Congress provides the Administration in allocating USACE’s funding in the work plan.

Enjoy!

"Maps are never value-free images" – John Brian Harley

My Age-O-Meter: 50th Anniversary of Earth Day!

It's the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, so happy 51st Earth Day! Since I was 21 on the first Earth Day then 21 + 50 =......Okay,

I won't bore you with my story of what I did on the first Earth Day in 1970; you can read about it here. Yeah, I helped build a dam.

One thing I learned: don't follow the advice indicated by this graphic from the January 1963 Popular Science. Even in 1970 we knew this was a bad idea - and not because the gravel is unnecessary! 

I also learned that the date for Earth Day was set for 22 April because it is about midway between spring break and the end of the term in American universities. It was envisioned as a holiday on which students could partake in environmental activities. 

So celebrate Earth and do good deed or two. Just keep 6 feet apart from others and wear a mask.

Today I would have been boarding a flight to Virginia to partake in my 50th college reunion at the College of William and Mary. As they say, 'Wait'll next year!".

How's this for an interesting Earth Day factoid. Richard M. Nixon (R) - during whose presidency the EPA, Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act and the Endangered Species Act were all created - died on this day in 1994. Who would have imagined that? 

Enjoy!

“Conscience is the inner voice that warns us somebody may be looking.” -- H.L. Mencken (tnx @danfagin)

CRS Report: 'Australia - Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge'

CRS folks Bruce Vaughn and Susan G. Chesser authored this InFocus report (11 March 2020): Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge

Download CRS_InFocus_AU_Fires_Climate_Challenge_11March2020

Overview

The recent devastating bush fires in Australia highlight the country’s growing dilemma over climate change. Australia’s economy remains heavily weighted toward extractive industries, leading to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions linked to climate change. A growing portion of voters see climate change as a threat to Australia’s vital interests. Many are pressuring Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s right of center Liberal-National Party Coalition to take additional steps to reduce emissions and combat climate change.

The Fires

According to the Australian government, “Australia is one of the most fire prone regions in the world.” Nonetheless, the 2019-2020 fires were extraordinary. (See Figure 1.) More than 27.2 million acres of vegetation, 33 people, an estimated one billion animals, and over 2,500 homes were lost to bushfires in Australia in the 2019-2020 fire season. (Fire Season normally lasts from October 1 to March 31.) The area burned is larger than South Korea and 46% larger than the area burned in the Amazon in 2019. Sydney’s air quality became a health risk, and parts of the nation’s capital Canberra had to be evacuated at one point. The Australian army was called to assist firefighters, and the navy evacuated people by sea from coastal communities cut off by fire. The New York Times reported the estimated cost to Australia’s economy to be between $3 and $3.5 billion.

Climate Change and Wildfires in Australia

Several researchers have found that projected climate changes show a trend towards more dangerous fire weather conditions in Australia. The year 2019 was the hottest year on record for Australia. (See Figure 2.) The average daytime maximum temperature in Australia was reportedly 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Australia’s average rainfall in 2019 was the lowest since records began in 1900 and was 40% less than normal. 2019 was also the first year that the hottest and driest years in Australia overlapped.

The Australian government reports that their Forest Fire Danger Index has increased at 16 of 38 sites over the period from 1973 to 2010. According to the Australian government, surface temperatures over land and surrounding seas increased by 3.2℉ since the beginning of the 20th century. The frequency of very warm months has increased, as has average rainfall. More frequent extreme heat and flooding events raise risks to human health and to livestock production. Sea levels vary significantly year-to-year, mostly associated with natural variability, though the rising trend is less than the global average sea level rise. According to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, “[c]limate change is the greatest threat to the Great Barrier Reef” due to bleaching during high temperature episodes and severe weather. Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment has found that “Australia faces significant environmental and economic impacts from climate change across a number of sectors.”

The Fires' Effect on Political Debate

These developments, particularly the recent fires, appear to be affecting Australians’ attitudes towards climate change. According to a 2019 Lowy poll, Australians ranked climate change as the first of ten possible threats to Australia’s vital interests over the next ten years, and 64% of those polled view climate change as a “critical threat.” This was an increase of six percentage points from 2018 and an 18 point rise since 2014. The Lowy poll also found that 59% of Australians polled believe the opposition Labor Party would do a better job of managing Australia’s response to climate change than the Coalition.

Prime Minister Morrison appears to some analysts to have won the May 2019 election in part because he emphasized the costs of climate action rather than the threat from climate change itself. However, the fires of 2019 and 2020 may have shifted many Australians’ perceptions of the relative costs. According to a News poll, Morrison’s approval rating dropped 8 points from December 2019 to January 2020.

The fires appear to have reignited past debates within the Liberal-National Coalition on climate change policy. In December 2019, the New South Wales Young Liberals called on the government to make changes to address the “extraordinary challenges presented by human-induced climate change.” In February 2020, Morrison reportedly faced opposition from within the Coalition party room over his government’s climate change policy. Several Coalition Members of Parliament (MP) reportedly argued that the Coalition should embrace more ambitious climate change action. A Liberal MP’s February 2020 proposal to establish a dedicated climate change minister was reportedly opposed by National Party members and hardline Liberals. In February 2020, two other Liberal MPs declared that the government should not support new coal-fired power stations. Others argued against adopting “reactionary” climate policies in response to the bushfire crisis.

By January 2020, Morrison, who had previously appeared reluctant to discuss the link between climate change and the fires, stated that the government could evolve its policies in order to reduce emissions but without putting additional costs on Australians or risking hurting resource industries.

Current opposition Labor Party Leader Anthony Albanese has emphasized the need to create clean energy jobs while advocating for a low carbon future. The Labor Party favors more aggressive emissions reductions targets and has reaffirmed its commitment to reach zero net emissions by 2050. The Australia Greens party has called for Australia to become a leader in climate action while developing a renewable energy economy. Greens Parliamentary Leader Adam Bandt reportedly will advocate for a Green New Deal and would phase out fossil fuel extraction in Australia.

Skipping a few paragraphs...

U.S. Linkages

The increasing intensity of Australia’s fire season and resulting political challenges have direct and indirect impacts on the United States. For example, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand have exchanged firefighting assistance for many years. In 2019, U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Forest Service wildfire personnel were sent to Australia to assist with wildfire suppression. In addition, three American firefighters working for Coulson Aviation, a private contractor, were killed when their air tanker crashed while on a fire fighting mission in Australia. In 2018, Australian and New Zealand wildfire management personnel were sent to assist with wildfire suppression in California. As fire seasons lengthen and grow in intensity, increased demand for this shared capability may strain existing capabilities.

Australia’s experience with the political debate over costs of mitigation vs. risk of continued climate change may help inform Congress’ deliberations over how to address the issue. While the risks and the drivers may be different, intensifying wildfire seasons also are a U.S. concern. For example, an April 2019 report from California Governor Gavin Newsom’s strike force office on “Wildfires and Climate Change” found that “climate change is a core driver of heightened wildfire risk.”

Lots packed into a small space - be sure to read the material I skipped.

Enjoy!

"Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power." - Abraham Lincoln